POLITICO: Democrats see the stars aligning in Iowa

New reporting from Politico highlights how “economic turmoil of the past year-and-a-half has been felt acutely in Iowa,” as Mariannette Miller-Meeks, Zach Nunn, and Joe Mitchell are fully on board with the health care cuts, tariffs, forever war, and Washington politics making life more expensive for Iowans.

Politico highlights how Medicaid cuts have closed down health care clinics: in IA-03, “clinics closed explicitly because of ‘expected Medicaid cuts’” and in IA-01, “a medical center ended its labor and delivery services, citing issues with government funding.” And the report cites how “Iowa farmers have been heavily impacted by Trump’s tariffs and trade wars — not to mention the spike in fuel and fertilizer costs.”

All of this creates the perfect storm to win in IA-01, IA-02, and IA-03: “seats [Democrats] swept in the last wave election, in 2018.”

DCCC spokesperson Katie Smith:
“Iowa families are hurting thanks to Washington politicians who put themselves and their political bosses ahead of doing what’s right for Iowa. After being lackeys for Kim Reynolds and now being lackeys for Washington special interests, Iowans will reject Mariannette Miller-Meeks, Zach Nunn, and Joe Mitchell because they’re ready for change.” 

Politico: Democrats see the stars aligning in Iowa

• For Iowa Democrats, a decade-long drought may finally be coming to an end.
• The economic turmoil of the past year-and-a-half has been felt acutely in Iowa, where the agriculture-heavy economy has been jolted by tariffs. Medicaid cuts in last year’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act are ransacking rural health facilities, Democrats say, and several clinics in the state have closed. And the Iran war has spiked prices for fertilizer and diesel — critical supplies for the farm state.
• That’s all creating a dynamic that Democrats feel will propel voters their way in the midterms, giving them a shot at their first major statewide wins since the Obama era. And they’re confident that their candidates atop the ticket — a slate that was officially nominated in Tuesday’s primaries — will help carry Democrats in down ballot races.
• Even some Republicans are sounding the alarm.
• “The reality is, if voters do not trust Republican elected officials and candidates with the future of the economy, they’re not going to vote for them this November,” said Drew Klein, an Iowa-based regional vice president of Americans for Prosperity. “That is what is going to decide the election in November.”
• Democrats see economic issues providing an opening across rural America. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee recently commissioned polling they say shows economic dissatisfaction among rural voters, according to a memo shared first with POLITICO.

• Iowa Democrats and DCCC are seriously targeting three of the state’s four House seats as well — seats they swept in the last wave election, in 2018.
• Democrats are banking on Iowans being ready for a change after a decade of leadership from Republican Gov. Kim Reynolds. According to data from Morning Consult, she’s been the country’s most unpopular governor for two years running; 49 percent of Iowans disapproved of Reynolds’ performance as of February 2026.
• Democrats have their sights on Republican Reps. Mariannette Miller-Meeks in the 1st District and Zach Nunn in the 3rd District — and even think Hinson’s open seat in the 2nd District could be in play.
• “Instead of standing up for Iowans, [Republicans] have put themselves, special interests, and their party bosses first,” said DCCC spokesperson Katie Smith. “Iowa families are desperate for change and after years of broken promises and failures, are ready to reject these creatures of the swamp.”
• “It feels different,” Sarah Trone Garriott, the Democratic challenger to Nunn who was elected to the state Senate in 2022 and 2024, told POLITICO on Tuesday, before winning her primary. “I have been one of the only [Democrats] to win in those years, and that felt pretty lonely. But this feels really good.”
• Iowa Democrats have seen recent flashes of hope. In 2025, Democrats won four of six special elections for the state legislature, breaking Republicans’ supermajority in the state Senate.
• Democrats draw a straight line between the changes to Medicaid in last year’s reconciliation bill and rural health clinic closures. In Iowa’s 1st District, a medical center ended its labor and delivery services, citing issues with government funding; in the 3rd District, clinics closed explicitly because of “expected Medicaid cuts.”
• But Iowa farmers have been heavily impacted by Trump’s tariffs and trade wars — not to mention the spike in fuel and fertilizer costs.
• Last fall, some farmers told former state Rep. Christina Bohannan — the Democratic nominee in the 1st District, where she will face Miller-Meeks for the third consecutive cycle — that they waited to buy fertilizer until spring because of high costs caused by tariffs. “Then we went to war with Iran, and the fertilizer prices spiked even more,” Bohannan said. “So our farmers are really struggling.”
• Aaron Heley Lehman, president of the Iowa Farmers Union and a fifth-generation farmer, warned that rural voters should not be automatically counted on by any party. “People are feeling a lot of pain right now and not seeing a lot of action to match rhetoric,” Lehman said. “The degree of hurt that Iowa farmers are feeling is pretty wide.”

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