TO: Interested Parties
FROM: DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department
MANNING LEADS BUDD IN NC-13
In a September DCCC Analytics survey of likely 2018 November general election voters, Democratic challenger Kathy Manning holds a 4-point lead over Republican Congressman Ted Budd. Manning leads with 46% of the vote to Congressman Budd’s 42% while 12% of voters are still undecided. Manning’s lead is particularly notable given a generic Democrat in the same survey trails a generic Republican by 5-points, 42% to 47%.
Manning has continued to consolidate base Democrats, wining 82% of registered Democrats to Budd’s 9% of registered Democrats, as well as leading Congressman Budd by 14-points among women (50% to 36%), by 78-points among African American voters (79% to 1%), and by 31-points among voters under 40 (55% to 24%).
Manning also leads by 6 among registered Independent/No Party Affiliation voters, earning 46% to Congressman Budd’s 40% with 14% undecided.
VOTERS EMBRACE MANNING’S STORY
This is the first public head-to-head survey conducted since both candidates have gone on air. Manning’s message has focused on how she will fix a Washington that isn’t working for North Carolina families, and ensure our representatives actually listen and respond to everyday people on the issues that matter most to them: good paying jobs, affordable healthcare, and protecting Social Security and Medicare so people can retire with dignity. The recent airplay has resulted in a positive swing in the vote towards Manning. After four weeks of airtime for the Manning campaign’s ads, “The Goal”, “Blessings”, “Opportunity,” and “Shouting”, the head-to-head vote has shifted towards Manning from the most recent publicly available poll in which Congressman Budd had a 5-point lead (Civitas, 07/2018).
This decisive shift towards Democrats, in such a short period of time, suggests Manning’s strategy is appealing to key swing voters, while helping her consolidate base support. Additionally, Manning is viewed favorably in the district: 28% of voters have a positive view of Manning while 19% have an unfavorable view. Accomplishing both of those tasks is vital in a district President Trump carried by just under 10 points, 53.4% to 44.0%, and Governor Cooper narrowly lost with 47.4% to McCrory’s 50.2%.
About the District: North Carolina’s 13th Congressional District includes the cities of Greensboro and High Point, the exurbs of Winston Salem and the rural areas between Charlotte and the Piedmont Triad. The Citizen Voting Age Population is 19.0% African American, 64.0% rural, and 36.0% suburban. Secretary Clinton lost this district with 44.0% of the vote in 2016, as did President Obama with 46.5% of the vote in 2012 and 48.4% of the vote in 2008.
These results are based on a DCCC survey of 537 likely November 2018 general election voters in North Carolina’s Thirteenth district, conducted September 13, 2018. Respondents’ information came from the voter file and this poll was conducted through a standard blend of live cell phone and automated calls. The margin of error is +/- 4.2%.
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