MUCARSEL-POWELL CONTINUES TO SURGE, EARNS 50% OF FL-26
In a late-September DCCC IE survey of likely 2018 general election voters conducted by GBA, Democrat Debbie Mucarsel-Powell leads Republican Carlos Curbelo by 2 points, winning 50% of the district. This result is consistent with recent polling numbers in the district, Mucarsel-Powell earning 49% to Curbelo’s 48%, in a recent GQR poll.
This 9-point shift since July’s survey, also conducted by GBA, reflects aggressive, early communication, driven by Debbie’s campaign and mirrored by the DCCC IE. To date, that paid communication has focused primarily on the contrast between Congressman Curbelo’s record on healthcare in Washington and Debbie’s record of making affordable healthcare more accessible in South Florida. Additionally, the realignment in the race echoes what the July poll’s informed vote projects.
Mucarsel-Powell leads Congressman Curbelo among key slices of the electorate, beating Curbelo by 17 points among registered Independent/No Party Affiliation voters, (57% to 40%). Mucarsel-Powell also leads Curbelo by 16 points among voters under 40 years old (58% to 42%). Mucarsel-Powell also holds a 5-point advantage among women, earning 51% of women to Congressman Curbelo’s 46%.
Just 44% of voters have an opinion of Mucarsel-Powell in a district that only fully engages when vote by mail ballots arrive at voters’ doorsteps. Voters hold a net-positive opinion of Mucarsel-Powell, 26% of voters have a favorable view while 18% have an unfavorable view. Despite this lower profile, Mucarsel-Powell still wins 50% of the vote, and in fact, 32% of voters who vote for Mucarsel-Powell are not able to identify her. This indicates that voters in this Democratic-leaning district would prefer to vote for someone who is less familiar to them, rather than vote for the incumbent Congressman Curbelo.
SOUTH FLORIDA IS FED UP WITH CURBELO AND NATIONAL REPUBLICANS
President Trump continues to see net-negative favorability and job approval. The President is viewed very unfavorably by 47% of the district (45% fav – 52% unfav), and 43% of the district rate his job performance as ‘Poor’. The majority of voters (53%) indicate that they would prefer a Congress controlled by Democrats that would provide a check and balance on Trump rather than a Congress controlled by Republicans that would work with Trump to get things done (42%).
Strong Democrats at the top of the ticket help energize this race with Democrat Andrew Gillum leading Republican Ron DeSantis by double digits, winning 54% of the district to DeSantis’s 43%. Senator Nelson’s strong top of ticket performance, leading Republican Rick Scott by 8 points, 52% to 44%, further puts Republicans’ future in South Florida in jeopardy.
About the District: FL-26 contains Monroe County and part of southwest Miami-Dade County. A majority of the district is urban (54.6%), with significant suburban population (33.8%) and a smaller rural population (11.6%). The district is 62.1% Hispanic/Latinx by current registration with a majority of these Hispanic/Latinx voters of Cuban descent. Clinton (56.4%) and Obama (55.4%, 2012) both won this district with a significant margin.
Methodology: These results are based on a GBA survey on behalf of the DCCC IE of 500 likely November 2018 general election voters in Florida’s Twenty-sixth Congressional district, conducted September 27-October 1, 2018. Respondents’ information came from the voter file and this poll was conducted by live calls in English and Spanish. The margin of error is +/- 4.4%