TO: Interested Parties
FROM: DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department
DEMOCRAT OJEDA LEADS IN TRUMP COUNTRY
In a September DCCC Analytics survey of likely 2018 November general election voters, Democrat Richard Ojeda has opened up a 4-point advantage over Republican Carol Miller. Ojeda garners 48% of the vote to Miller’s 44%, with 8% of voters still undecided.
Ojeda leads Miller by eight points among voters who report they will “definitely vote” (51% to 43%, 6% undecided), and ahead by 10 points among women (50% to 40%, 10% undecided).
Ojeda not only holds a decisive, 39-point lead among voters under 30 (68% to 29%), but also leads Miller by 5 points among likely voters aged 65 and older (48% to 43%). He maintains a 29-point advantage with likely voters under 40 (60% to 31%).
Ojeda bucks conventional wisdom that says Democrats aren’t competitive with voters who haven’t gone to college – he trails by just two points among voters who have a high school degree or less, 41% to 43% with 15% undecided.
This poll represents the third in the district since June showing Ojeda leading in this former Republican stronghold; a Monmouth University poll in June showed Ojeda up by 2 points (43% to 41%), and an Emerson College poll conducted last week showed Ojeda up by 5 (36% to 31%, with 33% undecided).
OJEDA’S ADS ARE BREAKING THROUGH
30% of likely voters said that the things they’ve heard about Ojeda recently make them feel more favorable toward him, and just 19% of respondents said the same about Miller.
Overall, Ojeda enjoys a net +13 favorability rating in the district (37% favorable, 24% unfavorable), while Miller’s rating is just net +3, with 50% of likely voters unable to identify her.
About the District: WV-03 is located in the southern part of West Virginia, including the city of Huntington. A majority of the district is rural (81.0%) with a significantly smaller suburban (16.9%) and urban (2.2%) population. Voters under the age of 30 comprise 16.9% of registered voters while voters over the age of 65 represent 25.4% of registered voters. Non-college graduates comprise 60.5% of the White voting age population. Clinton (23.3%) and Obama (43.1% 2008, 32.8% 2012) both lost the district the current DPI is 46.0%.
These results are based on a DCCC survey of 540 likely November 2018 general election voters in West Virginia’s Third congressional district, conducted September 16, 2018. Respondents’ information came from the voter file and this poll was conducted through a standard blend of live cell phone and automated calls. The margin of error is +/- 4.2%.