Post-Gazette: How Pennsylvania Democrats Could Capitalize on GOP Spending Bill in 2026 House Races

New reporting from the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette highlights how Republicans’ politically toxic Big, Ugly Bill could provide “the ammo Democrats need to win swing districts” across Pennsylvania.

The Post-Gazette points out that Congressmen Brian Fitzpatrick, Ryan Mackenzie, Rob Bresnahan, and Scott Perry will all have to answer to their Pennsylvania constituents after they voted for deep cuts to Medicaid. And the report reminds readers that Fitzpatrick is responsible for advancing the budget bill, writing: “The House passed the initial version of the bill by one vote, and Mr. Fitzpatrick voted ‘yes’ on that iteration.”

ICYMI:

• Some politicos say Congress’ action could be the ammo Democrats need to win swing districts throughout the state in the 2026 midterm elections.
• Local officials are still figuring out the exact impact of the Medicaid and SNAP cuts, but the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is already on the offensive, targeting vulnerable Republicans. DCCC Chair Suzan DelBene said in a prepared statement that U.S. Reps. Ryan Mackenzie, Rob Bresnahan and Scott Perry’s votes to approve Trump’s budget bill would devastate working and low-income families.
• “This Big, Ugly Bill is a laundry list of Republicans’ betrayal to the American people,” Ms. DelBene said. “The DCCC will make sure every battleground voter knows how vulnerable House Republicans — including Mackenzie, Bresnahan, and Perry — abandoned them by passing the most unpopular piece of legislation in modern American history, and we’re going to take back the House majority because of it.”
• According to Sabato’s Crystal Ball, an election prediction site created by longtime political analyst Larry Sabato, Mr. Mackenzie and Mr. Perry are in toss-up congressional districts. Mr. Bresnahan and fellow Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick are in districts that lean Republican, according to his site’s analysis.
• Democrats have an opportunity to target the GOP plan that targets Medicaid and SNAP […] “At the end of the day, Medicaid and Medicare are popular … that’s what you have to harp on over and over,” Mr. Butler said.
• Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro attacked Republicans on that point before the final vote. On July 2, he posted a thread on X about the number of people who would lose Medicaid coverage and SNAP benefits in each Republican congressional district. Tens of thousands of people would lose coverage in each district, according to data from the governor’s office.
• With recent history showing close margins in those districts, a slight shift in voting could put those representatives’ 2026 re-election bids in jeopardy.
• Mr. Perry won re-election last year by just more than 1% of the vote. Mr. Mackenzie beat incumbent Democrat Susan Wild by 1%, and Mr. Bresnahan beat incumbent Democrat Matt Cartwright by about 1.8%.
• Mr. Fitzpatrick won his district by nearly 13%, but some experts believe Democrats will […] tie him to the rest of the Republican Party. The House passed the initial version of the bill by one vote, and Mr. Fitzpatrick voted “yes” on that iteration.
• Chad Baker, chair of the Democratic Party of York County for almost a decade, said there is an opportunity next year to flip Mr. Perry’s seat — and others — if Democrats construct effective messaging about the cuts to Medicaid and SNAP. Republicans face a challenge next year because Trump is not on the ballot, and his presence tends to drive turnout, Mr. Baker said. Mr. Perry was first elected to Congress in 2012.
• […] Highlighting independent and nonpartisan analyses along with Mr. Perry’s past views could play well for Democrats in what has been a historically moderate district, Mr. Baker said.

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