Today, non-partisan election forecasters at Sabato’s Crystal Ball downgraded Rep. Scott Taylor’s re-election chances, shifting their rating of the race to a straight Toss-Up. Kyle Kondik of Sabato’s Crystal Ball cited Elaine Luria’s strength as a challenger, emerging Democratic support in the district, and the drag of Corey Stewart’s candidacy as reasons for the shift.
“Rep. Scott Taylor is in the toughest race of his career with Elaine Luria as his opponent, and the more voters hear about his record of gutting their health care and raising their premiums, the worse things are going to get for him.” – DCCC Spokesperson Jacob Peters
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A Half-Dozen House Ratings Changes in Favor of Democrats | Sabato’s Crystal Ball
By Kyle Kondik
June 28, 2018
http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/17816/
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Statewide, we know Republicans are very worried about bomb-throwing Prince William County Board of Supervisors Chairman Corey Stewart’s (R) Senate candidacy, and there’s little indication he’ll really push Sen. Tim Kaine (D-VA). Kaine very well could run ahead of Gov. Ralph Northam’s (D) nine-point 2017 victory over former Republican National Committee Chairman Ed Gillespie (R), who barely beat Stewart in the 2017 GOP primary.Gillespie performed poorly in typically Republican suburban areas, such as the House districts held by Reps. Scott Taylor (R, VA-2) and Dave Brat (R, VA-7), and many believe Stewart is likely to do even worse. While Trump won both districts in 2017, Northam actually carried the Hampton Roads-based VA-2, and almost carried VA-7, a suburban Richmond district that reaches up into more rural parts of Central Virginia. Democrats also nominated promising though unproven candidates in both seats: former Navy commander Elaine Luria (D) against Taylor, and ex-CIA officer Abigail Spanberger (D) against Brat.The combination of credible challengers and a challenging national environment that may be exacerbated in Virginia’s three big urban areas by Stewart’s candidacy prompts us topush both VA-2 and VA-7 from Leans Republican to Toss-up.
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