Today, the non-partisan election forecaster Sabato’s Crystal Ball downgraded Congresswoman Ann Wagner’s re-election chances, shifting the race from Solid Republican to Likely Republican.
Citing the positive environment for Democratic candidates and Democrats strong performance in special elections in deep red districts, Sabato’s Kyle Kondik noted that Ann Wagner is likely to face a harder-than-usual race in 2018. A poll last month in Missouri’s 2nd Congressional District found democrats leading in the generic ballot by 2 points.
“With the surging democratic enthusiasm in the suburbs and nothing to run on but a toxic Republican agenda that puts powerful special interests over Missouri families – it is no wonder that Ann Wagner is vulnerable,” said DCCC Spokesperson Amanda Sherman.
—
Raising the Ceiling, but Not the Floor, on Potential Democratic House Gains
Sabato’s Crystal Ball
By Kyle Kondik
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE
— The number of potentially vulnerable Republican seats is growing, and we’re adding an extra 10 GOP-held seats to the Likely Republican column this week.
— There are scenarios in which Democrats gain many more than the 23 net seats they need to win the House this year — perhaps double that or even more — but their overall odds to take control remain about 50-50.
[…] Of the 10 previously Safe Republican members who we are moving to Likely Republican, the majority of them were elected in 2010 or after, meaning that they’ve never had to run in a Democratic-leaning national environment. The midterms of 2010 and 2014 were Republican wave environments, and 2012 and 2016 were effectively neutral years in the House despite big shifts at the presidential level in nearly half of all districts in 2016. This year should feature the best Democratic environment since 2008. The size of that Democratic lean is yet to be determined, but certainly there are signs (such as election results so far this cycle and national House polling) that it could be pronounced.
[…] Other suburban Republicans who may have harder-than-usual races include Reps. Ann Wagner (R, MO-2) and Rob Woodall (R, GA-7), who represent suburban St. Louis and Atlanta, respectively. Democrats see some opportunities against Wagner, although she is sitting on a giant warchest. Woodall is not, and the same factors that made last year’s GA-6 special very competitive may also be affecting GA-7, although Woodall’s district is more Republican-leaning (Trump won GA-6 by just 1.5 points but he won GA-7 by six points, although both performances were very poor historically for a Republican presidential candidate in those districts).
[….] What these ratings change do is make clear that in the event of a big wave, there are some districts that might not seem competitive on paper that could flip, particularly because a deep bench of Democratic candidates is in place to capitalize on a potentially great environment in the fall. That’s where one could see Democrats picking up substantially more than the 23 net seats they need to win House control.