News · Press Release

RATINGS CHANGE: Cook Political Report Moves 13 Races Towards Democrats

Today, the non-partisan election forecaster Cook Political Report shifted another 13 races towards Democrats. Citing the strong national environment for Democrats, Cook’s David Wasserman specifically noted Democrats’ wide voter enthusiasm gap.

“While Republicans have been left floundering without a coherent message, Democratic momentum is growing stronger by the day,” said DCCC Spokesperson Tyler Law. “Democratic candidates across the country are ready to harness this energy, while many Republicans incumbents have been caught woefully unprepared.

  • CA-21 (David Valadao)
    • Likely R to Lean R
  • IA-02  (Dave Loebsack)
    • Likely D to Solid D
  • NV-03  (Open)
    • Toss Up to Lean D
  • NV-04  (Open)
    • Lean D to Likely D
  • NJ-03  (Tom MacArthur)
    • Likely R to Lean R
  • NJ-05  (Josh Gottheimer)
    • Lean D to Likely D
  • NY-18  (Sean Patrick Maloney)
    • Likely D to Solid D
  • NC-09  (Robert Pittenger)
    • Likely R to Lean R
  • OH-10  (Mike Turner)
    • Solid R to Likely R
  • WA-03  (Jaime Herrera Beutler)
    • Solid R to Likely R
  • WA-05 (Cathy McMorris Rodgers)
    • Likely R to Lean R
  • WV-03 (Open)
    • Solid R to Likely R
  • WI-07  (Sean Duffy)
    • Solid R to Likely R

April House Overview: Ratings Changes in 13 Districts
Cook Political Report
By David Wasserman

[…] The bad news for Republicans, of course, is that Trump’s approval rating is still 40 percent and that they still trail Democrats on the generic ballot by eight points. That’s enough to offset the GOP’s edge from favorably drawn districts and endanger their 23-seat majority (by our estimate, Democrats would need to win seven to eight percent more votes for House to win 218 of 435 seats).

Moreover, in a reversal from the 2014 midterms, Democrats enjoy a wide voter enthusiasm gap. According to a new CNN/SSRS survey, 51 percent of Democrats and Democratic-leaners said they were “extremely” or “very” enthusiastic about voting in November compared to 36 percent of Republicans/GOP leaners. Young voters, Trump’s weakest age segment, also express far more interest in casting ballots than they did four years ago.

This enthusiasm gap has been on display in off-year and special elections all cycle, including last month in Pennsylvania’s 18th CD, where Democrat Conor Lamb won a district Trump had carried by over 19 points. Despite two personal visits from Trump and a robust field program orchestrated by the GOP-aligned Congressional Leadership Fund, turnout as a share of 2016 was still seven points higher in Democratic-leaning Allegheny County than it was in GOP-leaning Westmoreland County.

[…] Retirements are also aiding House Democrats’ path to a majority. There are 36 districts where Republicans not running for reelection in 2016, including 12 at serious risk of falling to Democrats (Lean Republican or more vulnerable). Only 18 Democrats are exiting, and just four represent seats at serious risk of falling to the GOP. Additionally, Democrats are competitive in an August 7 special election in Ohio’s 12th CD to replace GOP Rep. Pat Tiberi, who resigned in January.

[…] Pennsylvania’s new court-ordered congressional map was another blow to Republicans. Under the old lines, Democrats already had a good chance to add two to four seats from the Keystone State; now they have a chance to pick up four to six seats versus 2016.

[…] Our latest ratings feature 55 competitive seats (Toss Up or Lean Democratic/Republican), including 50 currently held by Republicans and five held by Democrats. There are also three non-competitive seats poised to switch parties thanks to Pennsylvania’s new map (PA-05 and PA-06 to Democrats, PA-14 to Republicans). Overall, Democrats would need to win 27 of the 55 competitive races to win a majority. We continue to view Democrats the slight favorites for House control.



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