On Friday, the non-partisan election forecaster Cook Political Report shifted another 5 races towards Democrats, including two races to Toss Up.
“Democratic candidates across the country are winning the debate on healthcare and taxes every day against vulnerable House Republicans who remain unprepared to face a strong and credible challenge,” said DCCC Spokesperson Tyler Law. “Democrats are firmly on the offensive, while Republicans struggle to defend a historically unpopular agenda.”
Here are the districts that were moved to the left:
- FL-06 (Open)
- Solid R to Likely R
- FL-16 (Vern Buchanan)
- Likely R to Lean R
- IL-13 (Rodney Davis)
- Likely R to Lean R
- ME-02 (Bruce Poliquin)
- Lean R to Toss Up
- MI-08 (Mike Bishop)
- Lean R to Toss Up
Key Points from the Articles
FL-16: House: Ratings Changes in Two Florida Races
Lean Republican. Six-term Rep. Vern Buchanan hasn’t had a truly competitive race in his Sarasota-based district in nearly a decade. But the auto dealer and eighth wealthiest member of Congress (he’s worth around $73.9 million, according to Roll Call) may be in for a tougher reelection this time against Democratic personal injury attorney David Shapiro, who raised more than $1 million by the end of June.
In February, local Republicans got a wake up call when Democratic attorney Margaret Good beat the incumbent’s son, James Buchanan, in a high-turnout special election for a Sarasota-based state House seat, 52 percent to 45 percent.
[…] Democrats believe Shapiro can translate Good’s success to the congressional level, especially because the elder Buchanan is an ideal villain: for years, he was under a House ethics investigation into campaign donations from his car dealership employees (he was cleared in 2016) and Democrats allege he bought a $3 million yacht the same day he voted for the GOP tax cut bill.
ME-02: Poliquin Moves From Lean Republican to Toss Up
In 2018, 35-year old state Rep. Jared Golden presents a much tougher contrast for Poliquin, 64. Unlike Cain, Golden grew up squarely in the 2nd CD in the dairy farm town of Leeds. He enlisted in the Marines after 9/11, served several tours blowing down doors in Iraq and Afghanistan, and even worked several years on GOP Sen. Susan Collins’s homeland security committee and personal office staff.
[…] Now, Golden plans to contrast himself as a “Marine who runs into fire” against an incumbent who “ducks into bathrooms” when asked which way he’ll vote on repealing the ACA.
[…] However, Golden has a base in union-heavy Lewiston and is the type of Democrat who could take advantage of a favorable national environment. In some ways, he could be Maine’s version of Conor Lamb.
[…] Democrats argue the political environment has changed dramatically here since 2016, thanks to the GOP’s healthcare and tax bills, both of which Poliquin supported.
IL-13: Davis Moves From Likely Republican to Lean Republican
But, this is the kind of seat that could be problematic for Republicans in a wave, and Democrats have a credible candidate in Springfield fundraising consultant Betsy Dirksen Londrigan. Londrigan can’t definitively trace her ancestry to late Illinois GOP Sen. Everett Dirksen, but in March she defeated four primary opponents with 46 percent of the vote and has raised over $1 million to date.
[…] But Londrigan says Davis’s 2017 vote to repeal the ACA is what motivated her to run against the “Trump/Davis agenda.” She’ll use the personal story of her son’s life threatening tick bite in 2009 to illustrate her commitment to affordable health coverage.
MI-08: Bishop Moves From Lean Republican to Toss Up
Two-term GOP Rep. Mike Bishop didn’t have a well-funded opponent in 2014 or 2016, but that’s changing this year. Democrat Elissa Slotkin, who grew up in a well-known meatpacking family in rural Holly and served three tours in Iraq as an Arabic-proficient CIA analyst, has raised over $2 million and ended March with more cash on hand than Bishop.
[…] But in 2018, Democrats will finally have the resources to litigate Bishop’s record, and multiple private surveys depict Bishop in weak shape.
Slotkin will contrast her service in sensitive areas of the world with Bishop’s lengthy political career. Prior to his election, Bishop served as majority leader of the state Senate and made several enemies for trying to block construction of a new bridge to Canada at a prominent donor’s behest. Democrats will also go after Bishop’s votes in favor of the GOP’s healthcare and tax bills.