Today, the non-partisan election forecaster Cook Political Report shifted another 5 races towards Democrats, including two races to Toss Up and one to Lean Democratic. Expansion districts also continue to become more competitive. Cook’s Dave Wasserman cited Democrats’ strength and Republicans’ paid communication failures as one of the reasons for the ratings change, noting, ‘Six weeks out, Republican ads aiming to disqualify Democrats early don’t appear to be sticking. House polling — both public and private — was already tenuous for the GOP, but has become noticeably more dire since Labor Day.’
“It’s clear that Republicans have no idea how to run against our strong Democratic recruits with deep records of service and impressive resumes, and their attempts have failed miserably,” said DCCC Spokesperson Tyler Law. “While Republicans flounder without a message, Democratic candidates across the country are winning the debate on healthcare, wages and taxes every day.”
Here are the districts that were moved to the left:
- CO-06 (Mike Coffman)
- Toss Up to Lean D
- NY-02 (Pete King)
- Solid R to Likely R
- NC-13 (Ted Budd)
- Lean R to Toss Up
- PA-01 (Brian Fitzpatrick)
- Lean R to Toss Up
- TX-31 (John Carter)
- Likely R to Lean R
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House Rating Changes: Five More Races Move Towards Democrats
By David Wasserman
https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/house/house-overview/house-rating-changes-five-more-races-move-towards-democrats
Six weeks out, Republican ads aiming to disqualify Democrats early don’t appear to be sticking. House polling — both public and private — was already tenuous for the GOP, but has become noticeably more dire since Labor Day. Independent polls in the last two weeks show Reps. Mimi Walters (CA-45), Leonard Lance (NJ-07) and Dave Brat (VA-07) trailing. Not long ago, they were in the Lean Republican column.
[…] But both parties are seeing Republicans’ numbers continuing to erode in professional suburbs, and some in the GOP fear they still haven’t hit “rock bottom.” This week, five more districts move towards Democrats.
CO-06: Mike Coffman (R) – Denver southeast suburbs: Aurora, Littleton
Lean Democratic. A New York Times/Siena poll taken last week showed Coffman trailing attorney and former Army Ranger Jason Crow 51 percent to 40 percent.
[…] But he’s never had to run in this hostile a political climate, and polls suggest the bottom may be dropping out for the GOP in professional suburbs. There’s still plenty of time left, but Coffman is behind today.
NY-02: Peter King (R) – South Shore Long Island: Islip, Babylon
Likely Republican. Thirteen-term Long Island GOP Rep. Pete King has routinely clobbered his opposition, taking more than 62 percent in three of his past four races. But he also hasn’t faced a real opponent in decades. Democrat Liuba Grechen Shirley, 37, was just 11 when King, 74, was first elected, and the non-profit consultant has raised over $1 million with the help of EMILY’s List. She’s running as a “working mom” and an Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-style outsider.
Shirley will cast King as an out-of-touch, pro-life career pol who voted to repeal protections for pre-existing conditions in a South Shore seat that voted for Barack Obama by four points in 2012 and for President Trump by nine points in 2016.
NC-13: Ted Budd (R) – West central: Greensboro, Statesville
Toss Up. This matchup may be the biggest culture clash in the country: Budd is a gun store owner and first-term Freedom Caucus member who homeschools his children in rural Davie County. Wealthy Democratic philanthropist Kathy Manning was the chief fundraiser for Greensboro’s $78 million performing arts center scheduled to open next year. If ever there was a race that’s “all about that base,” this is it.
It’s also behaving like open seat: Budd remains relatively unknown and undefined after winning this seat in 2016 with just 20 percent of the vote in the crowded GOP primary and some help from the Club for Growth. And even though the district voted for President Trump 53 percent to 44 percent, Greensboro may be energized and there aren’t compelling statewide races to turn out rural GOP voters.
[…] Several private polls on both sides show Budd stuck in the low-to-mid 40s, a dangerous place to be.
PA-01: Brian Fitzpatrick (R) – Southeast: Bucks County
Toss Up.
[…] But with six weeks to go, Republicans haven’t disqualified Wallace and the Democrat’s prodigious self-funding is keeping him in close contention with the incumbent.
So far, Republicans have bizarrely sidestepped their own best talking points. Instead of casting Wallace as an elitist who’s dwelled in mansions in Maryland and South Africa, the NRCC has attacked Wallace’s philanthropy for devoting millions to “socialists” and a population control group aiming to stop “irresponsible breeding.” Several GOP strategists grumbles the ads are clunky, confusing attempts at guilt by association.
[…] Right now, President Trump’s unpopularity is defining the race, and that’s bad for the GOP.
TX-31: John Carter (R) – Central: Round Rock, Temple, Killeen
Lean Republican. A new ALG Research poll for Democrat MJ Hegar’s campaign shows her within four points of Carter, 46 percent to 42 percent, closing the deficit from nine last month. Republicans beg to differ, but it makes some sense considering Hegar has had the airwaves to herself the last few weeks with 30-second versions of her “Doors” ad that became a viral fundraising sensation over the summer.
Carter, 76, has been a fixture in local politics for decades, including as a judge. But he’s never faced a competitive general election since winning this seat in 2002, and took an anemic 65 percent in this year’s primary. And Austin’s northern suburbs are moderating quickly.
[…] Hegar’s messaging head start and Carter’s lack of preparedness may force Republicans to divert cash here.