This morning, the non-partisan Cook Political Report made it clear that extremist Rep. Dave Brat’s seat in Congress is no longer safe, downgrading their rating of his race from “Solid Republican.”
“Rep. Dave Brat has gone Washington as a part of Speaker Paul Ryan’s do-nothing Congress, so Central Virginians are moving away from him,” said DCCC spokesman Jacob Peters. “From voting to rip healthcare away from his constituents, to backing Speaker Paul Ryan’s plan to give tax breaks to special interests at the expense of Medicare and Medicaid, Dave Brat is not the pragmatic voice that Central Virginia deserves.”
The Cook Political Report noted:
VA-07: Dave Brat (R) – Central: Richmond suburbs, Culpeper
Likely Republican. This wealthy district in the Richmond suburbs was once the most reliably pro-GOP establishment part of the state. Then in 2014, Brat pulled off the upset of the decade by defeating House Majority Leader Eric Cantor. And in 2016, court-ordered redistricting removed deeply conservative Hanover County from the 7th CD. Last year, President Trump lost the suburban portion of the 7th CD and won it by just six points overall. The blue trend line of Henrico County and lingering ill will towards Brat on the part of old pro-Cantor forces could make this an interesting “reach” in a wave scenario. Democrats haven’t decided between a primary or a convention. Five are running, including 2016 nominee Eileen Bedell, but the two strongest are former CIA officer Abigail Spanberger, who lives in Henrico, and retired Marine Col. Dan Ward, who lives on a farm in more rural Orange.