Today, non-partisan election forecaster Inside Elections moved a whopping 24 races towards the Democrats, including 8 races to Toss-up and 12 races to tilt or lean Democratic. The ratings changes include previously deep red districts, which the DCCC has aggressively recruited and invested in as part of a strategy to build the largest House battlefield in a decade.
“Democrats have won the messaging battle on healthcare and taxes and are united around the goal of taking back the House while the CLF and NRCC are already making tough decisions around which vulnerable House Republicans to leave out in the cold,” said DCCC Spokesperson Tyler Law. “Every day it becomes clearer that Republicans have no idea how to run against incredible Democratic candidates with deep records of service, no matter how red the district.”
Here are the districts that were moved to the left:
- CA-10 (Jeff Denham)
- Tilt R to Toss-up
- CA-25 (Steve Knight)
- Tilt R to Toss-up
- CA-45 (Mimi Walters)
- Lean R to Toss-up
- CA-48 (Dana Rohrabacher)
- Toss-up to Tilt D
- CA-49 (Open)
- Tilt D to Lean D
- CO-06 (Mike Coffman)
- Toss-up to Tilt D
- IL-06 (Peter Roskam)
- Toss-up to Tilt D
- IA-01 (Rod Blum)
- Tilt D to Lean D
- KS-02 (Open)
- Tilt R to Toss-up
- KS-03 (Kevin Yoder)
- Toss-up To Tilt D
- ME-02 (Bruce Poliquin)
- Tilt R to Toss-up
- MI-08 (Mike Bishop)
- Tilt R to Toss-up
- MN-02 (Jason Lewis)
- Toss-up to Tilt D
- MN-03 (Erik Paulsen)
- Tilt R to Tilt D
- NC-02 (George Holding)
- Lean R to Tilt R
- NC-13 (Ted Budd)
- Lean R to Tilt R
- NJ-03 (Tom MacArthur)
- Toss-up to Tilt D
- NY-19 (John Faso)
- Toss-up to Tilt D
- NY-22 (Claudia Tenney)
- Toss-up to Tilt D
- PA-01 (Brian Fitzpatrick)
- Tilt R to Toss-up
- PA-07 (Open)
- Tilt D to Lean D
- PA-10 (Scott Perry)
- Likely R to Lean R
- VA-02 (Scott Taylor)
- Lean R to Tilt R
- VA-07 (Dave Brat)
- Tilt R to Toss-up
Key Points
[…] It’s hard to imagine Democrats can get more excited for these midterm elections, but if more independent voters turn their backs on the GOP, it could be enough to swing more than a handful of close races, and even give Democrats a better shot at a majority in the Senate.
Democrats are still more likely than not to win a majority in the House. GOP strategists are starting to realize that some races are unwinnable and moving to triage mode. Tougher decisions lie ahead, as outside groups shift resources from well-regarded incumbents, in an admission of loss, to more viable districts.
Republicans have slipped in recent district-level surveys in what looks like a downward slide rather than a temporary dip. More than a handful of GOP incumbents appear to be stalled in the low to mid-40s and should be considered underdogs in this environment.
We’re adjusting our House projection from Democratic gains of 22-32 seats to 25-35 seats. It’s more likely that Democrats exceed that projection than that Republicans hold on narrowly. Democrats need to gain 23 for a majority.