“The combination of top-notch Democratic candidates, early DCCC investments in California, and an outpouring of grassroots support has put a historic number of races in California in play ahead of these pivotal elections,” said Drew Godinich, DCCC spokesperson. “On the other hand, the Washington Republican agenda of singling out California for punishment – from their disastrous tax scam that will raise taxes on millions of Californians and their healthcare plan that would increase the cost ofe healthcare – is coming home to roost.”
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IN CASE YOU MISSED IT
Inside Elections: 2018 Election Preview
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California’s 10th District (Jeff Denham, R, re-elected 52%). Clinton 49%. An expensive fight is taking shape on the airwaves for this seat, with Democratic groups having spent or reserved more than $2.5 million on broadcast television ads through Election Day, while Republican groups are on pace for nearly $4 million. The individual candidates have also reserved airtime: Denham reserved $1.8 million from Aug. 21 through Nov. 6, while Democrat Josh Harder reserved $1.8 million from Aug. 14 through Election Day. Public polling has been non-existent since the primary but the spending is a key indication that this is one of the most competitive races in the country.
This district tends to host competitive races, and some Republicans are confident that this cycle is business as usual for Denham. In 2016, Denham spent $4.2 million on his re-election race, while his Democratic opponent (Michael Eggman) spent $1.6 million through the general election. One Republican believes that water access remains the top issue in this district, which puts the incumbent on stronger ground. But Denham’s winning margins have progressively narrowed and it looks like he’s in a dead heat with a few weeks to go. Move from Tilt R to Toss-up.
California’s 25th District (Steve Knight, R, re-elected 53%). Clinton 50%. The congressman is in a tight race with Democrat Katie Hill, but short of 50 percent. That’s not good news for a GOP incumbent in this environment. CLF has spent or reserved $2.5 million while the NRCC has yet to reserve time. Move from Tilt R to Toss-up.
California’s 45th District (Mimi Walters, R, re-elected with 59%). Clinton 49.8%. Recent polling shows an uptick for the Democratic candidate, Katie Porter, in a district that was once seen as the safest GOP seat in Orange County. The DCCC is investing nearly $1.3 million for television while CLF is in for $3.3 million. It’s still unclear if a Democratic surge is enough to put Porter over the top in a historically-Republican district. But Walters’ lack of a recent competitive race and relatively soft profile in the district might be coming back to hurt her. The race looks even with less than two months to go. Move from Lean R to Toss-up.
California’s 48th District (Dana Rohrabacher, R, re-elected 58%). Clinton 48%. The combination of a strong challenger, Trump’s polarizing presidency, and the congressman’s quirky reputation, could add up to a potential victory for Democrat Harley Rouda. Some Democrats still probably underestimate Rohrabacher and the GOP nature of the district, but the data show Rouda either even or with a narrow lead. Move from Toss-up to Tilt D.
California’s 49th District (Open; Darrell Issa, R, not seeking re-election). Clinton 51%. The Republican candidate, Diane Harkey, hasn’t received much help from outside groups in what was 2016’s closest race in Orange County, and one of the closest in the country. Democrat Mike Levin has avoided any significant missteps and should win the race in this environment. Move from Tilt D to Lean D.
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