Today, the non-partisan election forecaster Sabato’s Crystal Ball downgraded Congressman Ralph Norman’s re-election chances, shifting the race from Solid Republican to Likely Republican.
Citing the positive environment for Democratic candidates and Democrats strong performance in special elections, including last year in this district, Sabato’s Kyle Kondik noted that Ralph Norman is likely to face a tough race in 2018.
“With the surging democratic enthusiasm in the suburbs and nothing to run on but a toxic Republican agenda that puts powerful special interests over South Carolina families – it is no wonder that Ralph Norman is vulnerable,” said DCCC Spokesperson Amanda Sherman.
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Raising the Ceiling, but Not the Floor, on Potential Democratic House Gains
Sabato’s Crystal Ball
By Kyle Kondik
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE
— The number of potentially vulnerable Republican seats is growing, and we’re adding an extra 10 GOP-held seats to the Likely Republican column this week.
— There are scenarios in which Democrats gain many more than the 23 net seats they need to win the House this year — perhaps double that or even more — but their overall odds to take control remain about 50-50.
[…] Of the 10 previously Safe Republican members who we are moving to Likely Republican, the majority of them were elected in 2010 or after, meaning that they’ve never had to run in a Democratic-leaning national environment. The midterms of 2010 and 2014 were Republican wave environments, and 2012 and 2016 were effectively neutral years in the House despite big shifts at the presidential level in nearly half of all districts in 2016. This year should feature the best Democratic environment since 2008. The size of that Democratic lean is yet to be determined, but certainly there are signs (such as election results so far this cycle and national House polling) that it could be pronounced.
[…] Finally, we’re adding two members who represent districts that contain some of suburban Charlotte on opposite sides of the border between the Carolinas: Reps. Richard Hudson (R, NC-8) and Ralph Norman (R, SC-5). Norman narrowly won a special election last year, and both members need to be on guard against a Democratic bounceback in territory that had Democratic House members relatively recently but also comfortably supported Trump.
[….] What these ratings change do is make clear that in the event of a big wave, there are some districts that might not seem competitive on paper that could flip, particularly because a deep bench of Democratic candidates is in place to capitalize on a potentially great environment in the fall. That’s where one could see Democrats picking up substantially more than the 23 net seats they need to win House control.
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