Today, the non-partisan election forecaster Sabato’s Crystal Ball shifted another 14 races towards Democrats. Citing the positive environment for Democratic candidates, Sabato’s Kyle Kondik noted that many vulnerable Republicans are facing their first competitive election in years or at all, against far better-funded challengers than they are used to.
“While Democratic candidates across the country have been out-fundraising and out-campaigning their opponents, many Republican incumbents have been caught woefully unprepared for a national environment that strongly favors Democrats,” said DCCC Spokesperson Tyler Law. “Democrats are firmly on the offense and ready to win while Republicans are struck on defense with a lackluster message and unpopular agenda.”
Here’s a roundup of the districts that shifted towards Democrats:
- AZ-06 (Dave Schweikert)
- Safe R to Likely R
- CA-04 (Tom McClintock)
- Safe R to Likely R
- CA-22 (Devin Nunes)
- Safe R to Likely R
- CO-03 (Scott Tipton)
- Safe R to Likely R
- GA-07 (Rob Woodall)
- Safe R to Likely R
- MO-02 (Ann Wagner)
- Safe R to Likely R
- NC-08 (Richard Hudson)
- Safe R to Likely R
- NJ-07 (Leonard Lance)
- Leans R to Toss-up
- NY-11 (Dan Donovan)
- Likely R to Leans R
- OH-07 (Bob Gibbs)
- Safe R to Likely R
- OH-10 (Mike Turner)
- Safe R to Likely R
- SC-05 (Ralph Norman)
- Safe R to Likely R
- VA-07 (Dave Brat)
- Likely R to Leans R
- WA-05 (Cathy McMorris Rodgers)
- Likely R to Leans R
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Raising the Ceiling, but Not the Floor, on Potential Democratic House Gains
Sabato’s Crystal Ball
By Kyle Kondik
http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/raising-the-ceiling-but-not-the-floor-on-potential-democratic-house-gains/
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE
— The number of potentially vulnerable Republican seats is growing, and we’re adding an extra 10 GOP-held seats to the Likely Republican column this week.
— All of these members remain solid favorites for reelection, but at the same time, many seem likely to face better-funded challengers than they are used to.
— There are scenarios in which Democrats gain many more than the 23 net seats they need to win the House this year — perhaps double that or even more — but their overall odds to take control remain about 50-50.
— Table 1 shows our 15 House ratings changes this week. Of those, 14 races move in a more Democratic direction, while Rep.-elect. Debbie Lesko (R, AZ-8) moves from Likely Republican to Safe Republican after her special election win on Tuesday night.
[…] Of the 10 previously Safe Republican members who we are moving to Likely Republican, the majority of them were elected in 2010 or after, meaning that they’ve never had to run in a Democratic-leaning national environment. The midterms of 2010 and 2014 were Republican wave environments, and 2012 and 2016 were effectively neutral years in the House despite big shifts at the presidential level in nearly half of all districts in 2016. This year should feature the best Democratic environment since 2008. The size of that Democratic lean is yet to be determined, but certainly there are signs (such as election results so far this cycle and national House polling) that it could be pronounced.
[….] What these ratings change do is make clear that in the event of a big wave, there are some districts that might not seem competitive on paper that could flip, particularly because a deep bench of Democratic candidates is in place to capitalize on a potentially great environment in the fall. That’s where one could see Democrats picking up substantially more than the 23 net seats they need to win House control.