Today, the non-partisan election forecaster Sabato’s Crystal Ball shifted a whopping 26 races towards Democrats. Citing the positive environment for Democratic candidates and incumbents, Sabato’s Kyle Kondik noted that, “it will be difficult for Republicans to dislodge many or perhaps even any Democratic incumbents.”
Kondik also acknowledged that the lack of Republican tax messaging in Pennsylvania’s upcoming special election points to Republicans’ realization that, “GOP plans to run on taxes this cycle are not as promising as the party hopes.”
“While Republicans fail to sell an incredibly unpopular tax scam that gives tax breaks to the wealthy and big corporations at the expense of middle class, Democratic momentum is growing stronger by the day,” said DCCC spokesperson Tyler Law. “Republicans have full control of Washington, and the reality is that people don’t like the tax bill and they are already blaming Republicans for skyrocketing healthcare costs. The scary thing for vulnerable House Republicans is that neither the NRCC nor the CLF have any clue what to do about it.”
Here’s a roundup of the districts that shifted towards Democrats:
- AZ-01 (Tom O’Halleran)
- Leans D to Likely D
- CA-07 (Ami Bera)
- Leans D to Likely D
- FL-16 (Vern Buchanan)
- Safe R to Likely R
- FL-07 (Stephanie Murphy)
- Leans D to Likely D
- IA-01 (Rod Blum)
- Leans R to Toss-up
- IA-02 (David Loebsack)
- Likely D to Safe D
- Il-12 (Mike Bost)
- Leans R to Toss-up
- MI-01 (Jack Bergman)
- Safe R to Likely R
- MI-08 (Mike Bishop)
- Likely R to Leans R
- MI-06 (Fred Upton)
- Safe R to Likely R
- MI-07 (Tim Walberg)
- Safe R to Likely R
- MN-03 (Erik Paulsen)
- Leans R to Toss-up
- NC-13 (Ted Budd)
- Likely R to Leans R
- NC-09 (Robert Pittenger)
- Likely R to Leans R
- NH-02 (Ann Kuster)
- Likely D to Safe D
- NH-01 (Open)
- Toss-up to Leans D
- NY-18 (Sean Patrick Maloney)
- Likely D to Safe D
- NY-03 (Tom Suozzi)
- Likely D to Safe D
- NY-01 (Lee Zeldin)
- Likely R to Leans R
- OH-01 (Steve Chabot)
- Likely R to Leans R
- OK-05 (Steve Russell)
- Safe R to Likely R
- PA-17 (Keith Rothfus)
- Leans R to Toss-up
- PA-18 (Special Election)
- Leans R to Toss-up
- TX-32 (Pete Sessions)
- Likely R to Leans R
- WI-03 (Ron Kind)
- Likely D to Safe D
- WI-01 (Paul Ryan)
- Safe R to Likely R
—
House 2018: 26 Ratings Changes, All in Favor of Democrats
Sabato’s Crystal Ball
By Kyle Kondik
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE
— With less than a week to go, the PA-18 special election moves from Leans Republican to Toss-up.
— In addition to that ratings change, we are making 25 other changes in the House, all in favor of Democrats.
— No Democratic incumbent is now rated worse than Likely Democratic, a nod to the reality that in a Democratic-leaning environment it will be difficult for Republicans to dislodge many or perhaps even any Democratic incumbents, though there are a handful of Democratic open seats that are more viable Republican targets.
— After these ratings changes, for the first time this cycle we have fewer than 218 seats (the number needed for a majority) at least leaning to the Republicans.
— Making his debut in our competitive House ratings is the chamber’s most powerful member, Speaker Paul Ryan (R, WI-1). While his district is competitive but clearly Republican-leaning on paper, this shift mostly reflects uncertainty surrounding his future.
[…]
Republicans sweat another red-seat special
Amazingly enough, the special election in Pennsylvania’s 18th Congressional District now looks like a Toss-up.
[…] Republicans are very much in danger of losing a district that supported President Trump by 20 points less than a year and a half ago. The reasons are:
Democrats have been consistently overperforming Hillary Clinton’s 2016 presidential performance in special elections held since Donald Trump’s election. My colleague Geoffrey Skelley has been tracking these elections, which are mostly for state legislative seats but also include a handful of congressional specials, and he calculates that Democrats have been running on average 13 points ahead of Hillary Clinton’s 2016 margin in the nearly 90 races held so far featuring a Democrat and a Republican.
[…] — Looking specifically at PA-18, former federal prosecutor Conor Lamb (D) has run a stronger campaign than state Rep. Rick Saccone (R).
[…] — Additionally, as National Journal’s Josh Kraushaar shrewdly observed in his PA-18 preview, Republicans have scaled back their advertising touting their tax cuts in this district, perhaps a sign that GOP plans to run on taxes this cycle are not as promising as the party hopes.
[…] Put it all together, and you’ve got a tight race in a district that not only voted for Trump, but was in the top third of all districts in terms of GOP lean in 2016.