Today, the non-partisan election forecaster Sabato’s Crystal Ball downgraded Congressman Tom McClintock’s re-election chances, shifting the race from Solid Republican to Likely Republican.
Citing the competitiveness of California’s 4th Congressional District and the positive environment for Democratic candidates, Sabato’s Kyle Kondik noted that Tom McClintock is likely to face a tough race in 2018.
“With the surging democratic enthusiasm in the suburbs and nothing to run on but a toxic Republican agenda that puts powerful special interests over California families – it is no wonder that Tom McClintock is vulnerable,” said DCCC Spokesperson Amanda Sherman.
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Raising the Ceiling, but Not the Floor, on Potential Democratic House Gains
Sabato’s Crystal Ball
By Kyle Kondik
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE
— The number of potentially vulnerable Republican seats is growing, and we’re adding an extra 10 GOP-held seats to the Likely Republican column this week.
— There are scenarios in which Democrats gain many more than the 23 net seats they need to win the House this year — perhaps double that or even more — but their overall odds to take control remain about 50-50.
[…] Of the 10 previously Safe Republican members who we are moving to Likely Republican, the majority of them were elected in 2010 or after, meaning that they’ve never had to run in a Democratic-leaning national environment. The midterms of 2010 and 2014 were Republican wave environments, and 2012 and 2016 were effectively neutral years in the House despite big shifts at the presidential level in nearly half of all districts in 2016. This year should feature the best Democratic environment since 2008. The size of that Democratic lean is yet to be determined, but certainly there are signs (such as election results so far this cycle and national House polling) that it could be pronounced.
[…] Also coming on to the board is Rep. Tom McClintock (R, CA-4), who sits in a suburban Sacramento district Trump won by about 15 points but likely will have a credible challenger in November. McClintock also barely won the last time he ran in a Democratic year, 2008, so there is some history of competition even in this typically Republican area (although McClintock was not an incumbent then). June’s all-party primaries in California should give us some clues about the competitiveness of these and other districts
[….] What these ratings change do is make clear that in the event of a big wave, there are some districts that might not seem competitive on paper that could flip, particularly because a deep bench of Democratic candidates is in place to capitalize on a potentially great environment in the fall. That’s where one could see Democrats picking up substantially more than the 23 net seats they need to win House control.