RATINGS CHANGE: Trey Hollingsworth’s Re-election Chances Downgraded
Today, the non-partisan election forecaster Sabato’s Crystal Ball downgraded Congressman Trey Hollingsworth’s re-election chances, shifting the race from Safe Republican to Likely Republican.
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Citing historical precedent, strong Democratic fundraising and a consistent Democratic advantage on the generic ballot, Sabato’s Kyle Kondik noted that Hollingsworth is likely to face a harder-than-usual race in 2018.
“Trey Hollingsworth has nothing to run on but a GOP Tax Scam that explodes the deficit while putting Social Security and Medicare in jeopardy and a disastrous attempt to rip away health care,” said DCCC Spokesperson Amanda Sherman. “Liz Watson on the other hand has a record of fighting for working families and is doing what it takes to make Indiana’s 9th Congressional District competitive
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The House Tilts Toward the Democrats | Sabato’s Crystal Ball
By Kyle Kondik
http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/the-house-tilts-toward-the-democrats/
Why the Democrats are now soft favorites in the House
As soon as President Donald Trump was elected, the national political dynamics immediately changed. Democrats, somnolent in off-year elections in the Obama years (and also in 2016, at least in some key places), would re-energize. The historical burden of holding the White House transferred to the Republicans, and the president’s party has lost ground in 36 of 39 House midterms since the Civil War with an average loss of 33 seats. In the more recent past, since the end of World War II, the average seat loss is 26 seats, or right on the borderline of the 23 net seats the Democrats need to elect a House majority.
[…] Why do we now tilt the House to the Democrats?
Well, part of the reason is simply this: In actuality, not much has changed throughout the cycle. That, in and of itself, is a problem for Republicans.
Election Day is getting closer, and the president’s approval rating is still largely stuck in the low 40s, a big red warning sign that has bedeviled the party of similarly-situated presidents in past midterms. The House generic ballot, which has generally been at around a Democratic lead of between six to eight points, is at the higher end of that range right now. But more importantly for the House battle, for most of this election cycle the generic ballot has shown a consistent Democratic lead that suggests a very competitive battle for the majority. A high number of open seats — the highest number of any postwar election save 1992 — give Democrats many more targets than the GOP (Republicans are defending 41 seats without an incumbent, while Democrats are defending only 22).
Special elections at the state and federal level, sometimes a helpful gauge of what is to come in the midterm, have generally shown Democrats improving on Hillary Clinton’s district-level performance, often drastically. Democrats seem very likely to improve on Clinton’s margin once again in a special election in OH-12 on Aug. 7, the last House special before the midterm, although by how much is a question (an update on OH-12, a race we now call a Toss-up, is included at the bottom of this article).
[…] There are also the specifics of this particular election. The second-quarter (April through June) House fundraising reports came out last week, and the results are alarming for Republicans. It’s not that GOP fundraising, in total, was bad: Many vulnerable incumbents had very solid quarters. Rather, it’s that Democratic fundraising was extraordinary, with dozens of Democratic candidates turning in blockbuster quarters and outraising their GOP opponents. Money isn’t everything, but one expects incumbents to have a clear financial edge on their opponents, and it’s not clear that some current GOP members will have even that with several months of buckraking to go before the Nov. 6 election.
[…] Other additions to the Likely Republican list are Rep. John Carter (R, TX-31), where veteran M.J. Hegar (D) is raising a lot of money even though she faces a very uphill battle; Reps. Jackie Walorski (R, IN-2) and Trey Hollingsworth (R, IN-9), who face credible opponents in districts that are historically more competitive than Trump’s lopsided vote totals would indicate; and Rep. Mike Kelly (R, PA-16), who occupies a Western Pennsylvania district based in Erie that has some similarities to the one Rep. Conor Lamb (D, PA-18) captured in a March special election.