RECESS RECAP: Republicans Got Grilled Over July 4th
While you were BBQing last week, House Republicans got grilled. The combination of bad coverage for vulnerable incumbents and their Party, plus the strength and momentum behind Democratic candidates, has Republicans’ backs pinned up against the wall. Here’s some of the stories from across the country that you might have missed…
NYT: Health Insurers Warn of Market Turmoil as Trump Suspends Billions in Payments
The Trump administration said Saturday that it was suspending a program that pays billions of dollars to insurers to stabilize health insurance markets under the Affordable Care Act, a freeze that could increase uncertainty in the markets and drive up premiums this fall.
Mic: Female veterans could be key in Democrats’ quest to win the House
The 2018 midterm election season isn’t just shaping up to be the year of the woman — it’s also looking like it will be the year of the female veteran.
Of more than two-dozen Democratic veterans who have lined up to run for Congress this fall to help win back 23 seats needed to flip the House majority, more than a third of those candidates are women — many of whom have a high likelihood of winning their elections in November.
In fact, six of the 15 veterans on the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s Red to Blue list — which lists top candidates in competitive districts that the committee is trying to flip in November — are women.
CA-All: CalMatters: Highest turnout in a midterm primary since ’98
Some of the biggest increases in turnout relative to the 2014 midterm primary were in areas with the most competitive congressional races. Orange County as a whole saw a 19 percentage point increase in turnout.
CA-48: Daily Beast: Democrats Content Riding Rohrabacher Weakness Into General Election
Rouda will be the first Democrat to be backed by the national party in this district since it was redrawn in 2012. Indeed, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) didn’t spend a single cent there in the last two cycles.
Now it is all in, spending more than $1.6 million to defeat Baugh and $400,000 in support of Rouda in a joint ad buy. The DCCC also spent $110,000 propping up Republican John Gabbard in the election’s final stretch in an effort to split the GOP vote.
CO-06: NYT: If Demographics Are Destiny, Why Can’t Democrats Win This Denver District?
But that was before President Trump and “zero tolerance” along the southern border. This year, liberal groups and immigration activists hope to flip these diversifying suburbs, in part by mining the fear, anger and activism unleashed by Mr. Trump’s policies.
They are pinning their hopes on Jason Crow, a lawyer and former Army Ranger who won the Democratic primary last Tuesday to challenge Mr. Coffman in November.
[…] As they cast ballots in the primary last week, several voters in Aurora said that immigration was just as important an issue to them as rising health care costs and their struggles with soaring housing costs and student debt. Some had brothers and sisters who were protected under the DACA program; others had parents who had once been undocumented.
[…] “For a long time, the community has been giving Coffman credit for showing up,” said Julie Gonzales, a community organizer running for a seat in the Colorado State Senate. “But now the words aren’t enough. Showing up isn’t enough. People want to see the bills.”
FL-26: POLITICO: Republicans burn Curbelo after taking his PAC money
Congressman Carlos Curbelo touted his “What a Country!” political action committee as a way to support like-minded Republicans on immigration, dishing out $152,600 to 61 House Republicans over the past three years.
But when Curbelo most needed their support, most of those Republicans deserted him.
[…] Now, what Curbelo describes as a pragmatic decision to get something rather than nothing, his Democratic opponent calls a lack of principles.
“He’s caving,” said Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, echoing criticisms from immigrants-rights groups like America’s Voice. “For someone who talks about bipartisanship, to have zero Democrats involved in writing an immigration bill that is going to come to the floor for a vote shows you that he caves to his party, that he is not fighting for Dreamers, that he’s letting down his community.”
IA-ALL: Iowa Starting Line: Registered Democrat Numbers Surge In Iowa After Primary
There’s a lot more registered Democrats in Iowa following last month’s high-profile, competitive primaries for governor and three congressional districts. Updated voter registration numbers from the Secretary of State’s office today shows 24,189 new registered Democrats over last month’s pre-primary numbers.
[…] It’s one more piece of good data for Iowa Democrats as they head into their must-win races in 2018 to wrestle government back from full-Republican control. The primary last month saw the highest turnout for a Democratic primary since the early 1990s, and overall enthusiasm among the grassroots has been high since the 2016 election. And special elections in Iowa have seen large shifts in voting trends toward Democrats.
IL-12: McClatchy: Can Dems win back the Obama-Trump voter? This race is the test.
Kelly is betting that what drives votes here is ‘not about left versus right, it’s more about up versus down.’ In other words, economic anxiety rather than raw partisanship. While he is targeting more traditionally Democratic constituencies—organized labor, the African American community, women, the progressive groups that have blossomed since Trump’s election—he is keenly aware that he also needs to win Trump voters. And so he is pitching himself as an independent-minded candidate with strong personal connections to a struggling district that, he hopes, is still in the mood for change.
IL-13: The State Journal-Register: Rep. Davis wary of tariffs; won’t say if he voted for Trump
When asked Friday who he voted for in the presidential race, given the statement that he couldn’t vote for Trump, Davis said, “The American people chose President Trump, and I’m going to continue to work with Donald Trump, who I’ve had a chance to get to know across the table.”
[…] Asked again if he voted for Trump, Davis said, “There’s one thing I’ve learned in this business. I can tell you, I will never tell anybody who I voted for. … I will continue to respect the same process and privacy that you ask for.”
KS-02: CNN: GOP candidate in Kansas: ‘Outside of Western civilization, there is only barbarism’
A Republican congressional candidate in a Kansas race Democrats are targeting in November told an audience at a party meeting this month that “outside of Western civilization there is only barbarism.”
[…] While CNN has rated the race to replace Jenkins as leaning Republican, Democrats have lined up behind former Kansas House Minority Leader Paul Davis to flip the district, which stretches the state from north to south and includes parts of suburban Kansas City.
Davis, with the help of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, has raised more than $1 million, far more than any of the Republican hopefuls.
KS-02/03: AP: Even in GOP bastion Kansas, 2 congressional seats in play
In one case, the Republican incumbent who faced a tighter-than-expected race two years ago faces a field of Democrats energized by dislike of Trump on issues including immigration, health care and the environment. In the other, potential big-name candidates opted not to run for the open seat, leaving a Democrat with the best name recognition.
KY-06: NYT: Amy McGrath Set Her Sights on the Marines and Now Congress. Her Mother Is the Reason.
“Now her daughter is running for Congress as a Democrat in Kentucky’s Republican-held sixth district on the power of an origin story that shows the same resolve as her mother. Amy McGrath knew her mother could not run, so she pushed herself to be a three-sport star athlete. She knew her mother had broken barriers, so she felt empowered to challenge the male-dominated norms of the military. And she knew her mother had endured pain and emotional hardship, so she pushed herself to do the same.”
NC-09: Charlotte Observer: NC congressional candidate suggested woman’s career can interfere with biblical role
Republican congressional candidate Mark Harris, a former Baptist pastor, once delivered a sermon questioning whether a career was the “healthiest pursuit” for women.
[…] In a statement, McCready said the sermon reflects someone “out of step.”
“As a Christian, I believe that we are all created in God’s image,” he said. “That means men and women are equally valuable and equally capable and should be treated as such in their homes, careers, and in society. Mr. Harris’ comments suggest otherwise. This is just another example of how out of step Mr. Harris is — not just with this district but with this century.”
NC-13: High Point Enterprise: Tax reform item could crimp nonprofits, churches
The tax imposition is drawing the ire of nonprofits and promises to become a political issue, such as in the local congressional race between freshman Rep. Ted Budd, R-13th, and Democratic challenger Kathy Manning.
[…]Manning said the inclusion of the tax provision on nonprofits in the overall measure shows the legislation was ill-conceived and not thought out, except to bring a windfall to the wealthy.
“Congressman Budd was wrong to vote for a new tax on churches and charities,” Manning told The Enterprise. “These organizations are places where we worship, seek comfort during times of need, and they provide important services to our community like job training and health care. When I go to Congress, I will fight every day to strengthen and support these critical faith-based pillars of our community — not burden them with new taxes and costs.”
NJ-All: The Hill: GOP runs into Trump tax law in New Jersey
Democrats in New Jersey are hoping that President Trump’s tax-cut law provides them with a boost in the midterm elections.
The law caps the state and local tax (SALT) deduction at $10,000, a change that hurts people in high-tax states such as New Jersey, which has the highest property taxes of any state.
[…] Democrats on the campaign trail say restoring the full deduction means putting their party back in charge of the House.
NY-11: NYT: With G.O.P. Primary on Staten Island Over, Enter the Democrat
But all the while, Max Rose, a 31-year-old Army veteran and health care executive, was waiting in the wings — if waiting can mean corralling votes with the tenacity of a sheepdog, out-raising and out-canvassing his five Democratic challengers.
[…] Mr. Rose, who happily answers to progressive, moderate, liberal — even “blue dog” — refuses to concede that the borough is inherently conservative, and thus unwinnable. President Trump won Staten Island by 17 points, but Democrats outnumber Republicans in the district by a five-to-three ratio.
[…] The district is viewed as one of the most competitive in the country, and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee wasted no time attacking Mr. Donovan, releasing a 30-second negative ad, hours after the primary results were known.
NY-19: Times Herald-Record: EDITORIAL: Delgado schools Faso on issues and decorum
Instead of resorting to taunts and name-calling, Delgado sounded much more like a member of Congress than the person who represents New York’s 19th District for now, saying, “I am eager to discuss our country’s immigration policies and U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement with the congressman.”
OH-12: Columbus Dispatch: Endorsement: For 12th District: Danny O’Connor favored for open seat
By all accounts, both O’Connor and Balderson are decent, successful men who would work hard for voters of the 12th District.
But one supports a reasonable, thoughtful approach to addressing the important issues facing Congress and our country, and the other supports a president who uses tactics and pushes policies that this Editorial Board has denounced. Our endorsement goes to Danny O’Connor.
SC-01: The State: National Democrats return to deep-red South Carolina district
Some Republicans in the district are already showing signs of alienation from Arrington. Following her primary victory, GOP Mayors Jimmy Carroll of Isle of Palms, and Tim Goodwin of Folly Beach endorsed Cunningham for his opposition to offshore drilling, a defining local issue.
TX-07: Dallas Morning News: Democratic congressional challenger in competitive Houston district raises $1 million in 2nd quarter
Lizzie Pannill Fletcher, the Democratic challenger in one of the Texas congressional seats that Democrats hope to flip in November, reported more than $1 million in contributions in the second quarter.
[…] Three quarters of Fletcher’s second-quarter contributions came from within Texas, with over 68 percent coming from Houston-area residents.
VA-02: Virginian Pilot: Democrats argue Scott Taylor has to endorse or reject Corey Stewart, Taylor says no dice
Standing side-by-side before a noisy Democratic crowd in a Town Center cupcake shop, Sen. Tim Kaine and congressional candidate Elaine Luria were making their pitch.
U.S. Rep. Scott Taylor, Luria’s 2nd District opponent, is in cahoots with firebrand GOP Senate candidate Corey Stewart, they argued, and supports President Donald Trump’s controversial decisions. So a vote for Taylor is a vote for Stewart and Trump.
[…] “I don’t give a s— about Corey Stewart,” Taylor said. “No one else does either except for Democrats who are trying to target me. … No one cares, except for a small teeny amount of people you met at the cupcake place. What are they trying to say? That Scott Taylor likes Corey Stewart so therefore he’s a racist? Do you think that’s going to play here? My son is named after a black guy. I’m a military guy. We don’t give a s— about where you come from. Black, white, brown, gay, straight. I don’t care.”
VA-02/07/10: Washington Post: On the “flip list”: Dave Brat and Barbara Comstock
The Wason Center’s Rachel Bitecofer has published a new paper that will hearten Virginia Democrats.
Nationally, the party is “primed to pick up enough seats to control the House.”
In Virginia, Bitecofer pulls no punches: Republican Reps. Dave Brat and Barbara Comstock will lose. And the state’s other race to watch, the 2nd District, is a pure toss-up.
VA-07: Cook Political Report: Brat Moves from Lean Republican to Toss Up
But four years later, he’s at risk of getting swept out by a Democratic wave in a rapidly moderating district anchored by the professional Richmond suburbs.
[…] In June, former undercover CIA operative Abigail Spanberger crushed a well-funded Democratic primary opponent with 73 percent of the vote in an impressive display of grassroots support. Spanberger grew up in Henrico County (the 7th CD) writing a diary in code. As a pragmatic woman with a non-political resume, she could offer a problematic contrast for Brat, a Freedom Caucus member who complained last year about women “in my grill” at town halls.
WA-05: NPR: Highest-Ranking Republican Woman Faces Tough Re-Election
A record number of women are running for the House this year. Less than a quarter of them are Republicans. One of those Republicans is Cathy McMorris Rodgers of Washington state. She is the nation’s top elected Republican woman. And she is facing her toughest campaign in more than a decade. That’s in part because her role in GOP leadership ties her closely to President Trump.
[…] But that frustration is a sign of the enthusiasm among Democrats. After years of mulling a run for Congress, former state Senate Majority Leader Lisa Brown decided that this was the year to challenge McMorris Rodgers.