The DCCC has long said that no matter who Republicans nominate, Ted Cruz and Donald Trump have already hurt House Republicans by driving the presidential narrative further and further out of the mainstream, dragging the rest of the party with them to the far right. For specific examples of vulnerable House Republican incumbents who have been impacted by this down-ballot damage, look no further than our handy report.

But there’s one prospective Republican presidential nominee who scares Paul Ryan and the NRCC the most – Ted Cruz, who just secured a solid victory in last night’s Iowa Caucuses. How do we know Cruz scares House Republicans more than the rest? They told us…

Pollster: Cruz would hurt Republican House hopefuls most

POLITICO

By Jake Sherman and John Bresnahan

January 13, 2016

Paul Ryan and other leaders were told the Texas senator would be bad news for the party’s House prospects.

A leading Republican pollster privately told Speaker Paul Ryan and his leadership team Sen. Ted Cruz would be the biggest drag on House Republicans should he win his party’s nomination, according to multiple sources who attended a small meeting of senior GOP lawmakers earlier this month.

During the gathering in Annapolis, Maryland, Dave Sackett of the Tarrance Group reviewed a recent poll he conducted for the National Republican Congressional Committee that described internal party data, including how voters feel about Donald Trump’s calls to temporarily bar Muslims from entering the U.S. and to deport undocumented immigrants.

After the presentation to the group of elected Republican leaders, Ryan (R-Wis.) asked Sackett which of the Republican presidential hopefuls would be most detrimental to GOP House candidates on the ballot this year. Sackett replied that Cruz would have the biggest negative effect, citing the Texas senator’s starkly ideological positions, according to six sources who were in the meeting. Sackett told the group that the public’s perception of Cruz could shift if he becomes the nominee.

The presentation did not include projections of how many seats House Republicans might win or lose. And Sackett told the group — which included Ryan, Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy of California and Majority Whip Steve Scalise of Louisiana — that Republicans could gain seats and retain their majorities, no matter who wins the nomination.

Republicans have their biggest House majority in 80 years and have a virtual lock on the chamber. But Democrats are expected to pick up some seats in November; they typically perform better in higher-turnout presidential elections. The GOP nominee could mean the difference between losing a handful of seats and perhaps many more.

Rick Tyler, communications director for Cruz’s presidential campaign, dismissed Sackett’s analysis “as the same old tired thinking that we always get.”

Tyler described that view as having “ to nominate someone in the moderate middle in order to win [the White House]. That’s the same old thing we hear every four years, and it just doesn’t stand up anymore.”

Ryan, McCarthy and Scalise have not endorsed in the race, and the speaker did not indicate he was looking to wade into the contest or attempt to change the direction of the primary, according to sources present. Ryan’s office declined to comment, as did the NRCC and Sackett.

But the private comments indicate for the first time Ryan’s active interest in the presidential race and its potential bearing on his House majority. Senior Republican lawmakers such as NRCC Chairman Greg Walden of Oregon have publicly expressed concern that Trump could damage the House GOP’s electoral prospects should he become the nominee.

Sackett’s presentation confirmed those worries. His poll showed that a plurality of respondents — 48 percent to 40 percent — would be less likely to vote for a Republican congressional candidate or incumbent if Trump were the nominee. The business mogul and former reality TV star, who has been leading in most GOP polls for months, was the only candidate surveyed on that question, the sources said.

Read more at POLITICO.