unveiled their latest power rankings for the most vulnerable incumbents and the seats most likely to flip next week, and it is more bad news for House Republicans.
Out of the 10 most vulnerable House members on Roll Call’s list, EIGHT of them are Republicans:
CA-06 (Kiley):
“[A] pair of Californians occupy the top two spots on CQ Roll Call’s final list of the most vulnerable House incumbents of 2026. Republican Rep. James Gallagher and independent Kevin Kiley, who caucuses with the GOP, both hold seats that were radically reshaped in Democrats’ favor”
IA-01 (Miller-Meeks): “Miller-Meeks has struggled to win her eastern Iowa seat even in strong Republican years: She beat Democrat Christina Bohannan by less than 800 votes in 2024, while Trump carried the district by more than 8 points. Bohannan is back, and this year, the political headwinds are blowing in her favor”
NJ-07 (Kean Jr.): “Kean, who debuted on this list last month, moves up three spots after GOP outside groups, including the Congressional Leadership Fund, recently withdrew ad spending from the Central Jersey district to help shore up other Republicans”
PA-07 (Mackenzie): “Mackenzie, a mainstay on this list all cycle, faces a difficult reelection in a perennial Lehigh Valley battleground district. The freshman lawmaker faces Democrat Bob Brooks, a firefighter union president whom recent polls have shown to be in the lead”
PA-10 (Perry): “Perry makes his debut on the list with the former Freedom Caucus chairman locked in a tight rematch from 2024 against former broadcast news journalist Janelle Stelson.”
AZ-06 (Ciscomani): “[H]is Democratic opponent, Marine Corps veteran JoAnna Mendoza, says he’s embraced policies that have hurt the district’s rural hospitals and driven up costs. Mendoza has been a prolific fundraiser, bringing in $11.2 million through Oct. 14 to Ciscomani’s $7.6 million”
IA-03 (Nunn): “His Democratic opponent, Sarah Trone Garriott, is a Lutheran minister and state senator with a track record of flipping competitive seats. The Iran war and tariffs have pushed up prices for fertilizer and diesel fuel, key components of the farming state’s economy”
Meanwhile, National Journal lists SEVEN House Republicans in their top 10 as being the most likely to lose their seats:
NE-02 (OPEN): “Rep. Don Bacon, a formidable GOP incumbent, opted against reelection, clearing a path for Democrats to take the Omaha-based district. National GOP groups have pulled spending from the 2nd”
CA-48 (OPEN): “[M]any operatives think the seat is long gone for Republicans”
IA-01 (Miller-Meeks): “Trump’s tariffs have hit the state hard, and farmers are paying more at the pump to fuel their diesel-powered equipment thanks to the prolonged war with Iran. Seeing the writing on the wall, national GOP groups triaged the race”
NJ-07 (Kean Jr.): “Kean, normally the antithesis of an attention-grabbing politician, drew the political world’s eyeballs when he disappeared from Congress for four months with no warning and little explanation”
PA-07 (Mackenzie): “This is the most expensive race in Pennsylvania this cycle, and the closing days of the campaign between Mackenzie and firefighter Bob Brooks have become incredibly bitter and personal”
NC-11 (OPEN): “Trump won the district by about 10 points in 2024, but Republicans have nonetheless pulled funding as they seek to shore up incumbents elsewhere. Polls show Ager leading, and Balkcom likely lacks the resources to prevent the flip.”
IA-03 (Nunn): “Nunn is fighting for his political life in the purest swing district in Iowa.”
