Today, the non-partisan election forecaster Sabato’s Crystal Ball moved a whopping 17 races towards Democrats. Citing historical precedent, strong Democratic fundraising and a consistent Democratic advantage on the generic ballot, Kyle Kondik noted, ‘Democrats now look like soft favorites to win a House majority with a little more than 100 days to go.’
“With Election Day rapidly approaching, Democrats across the country are energized and united around taking back the House,” said DCCC Spokesperson Tyler Law. “There’s no question that primaries have produced strong, battle-tested Democratic candidates who are the best fit for their districts and are ready to win in November.”
Here’s a roundup of the districts that shifted towards Democrats:
- AR-02 (French Hill)
- Likely R to Lean R
- FL-16 (Vern Buchanan)
- Likely R to Lean R
- FL-13 (Charlie Crist)
- Likely D to Safe D
- IA-04 (Steve King)
- Safe R to Likely R
- IA-03 (David Young)
- Lean R to Toss-up
- IL-06 (Peter Roskam)
- Lean R to Toss-up
- IN-09 (Trey Hollingsworth)
- Safe R to Likely R
- IN-02 (Jackie Walorksi)
- Safe R to Likely R
- KY-06 (Andy Barr)
- Lean R to Toss-up
- MI-08 (Mike Bishop)
- Lean R to Toss-up
- NM-02 (Open)
- Likely R to Lean R
- OH-01 (Steve Chabot)
- Lean R to Toss-up
- OH-12 (Open – Special Election)
- Lean R to Toss-up
- PA-16 (Mike Kelly)
- Safe R to Likely R
- TX-31 (John Carter)
- Safe R to Likely R
- TX-07 (John Culberson)
- Lean R to Toss-up
- WV-03 (Open)
- Lean R to Toss-up
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The House Tilts Toward the Democrats | Sabato’s Crystal Ball
By Kyle Kondik
http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/the-house-tilts-toward-the-democrats/
Why the Democrats are now soft favorites in the House
As soon as President Donald Trump was elected, the national political dynamics immediately changed. Democrats, somnolent in off-year elections in the Obama years (and also in 2016, at least in some key places), would re-energize. The historical burden of holding the White House transferred to the Republicans, and the president’s party has lost ground in 36 of 39 House midterms since the Civil War with an average loss of 33 seats. In the more recent past, since the end of World War II, the average seat loss is 26 seats, or right on the borderline of the 23 net seats the Democrats need to elect a House majority.
That average includes years where the presidential party broke the historical trend and netted a few seats (1998 and 2002) or lost only a relative handful (1962 and 1990). But the presidents who presided over those midterms were popular and had other factors working in their favor. This president is not popular, and no one believes there is any chance the Republicans come out of this election with more seats than they hold now. Even just a single-digit GOP seat loss would be shocking, an outcome driven by late developments unforeseeable at this juncture.
[…] Why do we now tilt the House to the Democrats?
Well, part of the reason is simply this: In actuality, not much has changed throughout the cycle. That, in and of itself, is a problem for Republicans.
Election Day is getting closer, and the president’s approval rating is still largely stuck in the low 40s, a big red warning sign that has bedeviled the party of similarly-situated presidents in past midterms. The House generic ballot, which has generally been at around a Democratic lead of between six to eight points, is at the higher end of that range right now. But more importantly for the House battle, for most of this election cycle the generic ballot has shown a consistent Democratic lead that suggests a very competitive battle for the majority. A high number of open seats — the highest number of any postwar election save 1992 — give Democrats many more targets than the GOP (Republicans are defending 41 seats without an incumbent, while Democrats are defending only 22).
Special elections at the state and federal level, sometimes a helpful gauge of what is to come in the midterm, have generally shown Democrats improving on Hillary Clinton’s district-level performance, often drastically. Democrats seem very likely to improve on Clinton’s margin once again in a special election in OH-12 on Aug. 7, the last House special before the midterm, although by how much is a question (an update on OH-12, a race we now call a Toss-up, is included at the bottom of this article).
[…] There are also the specifics of this particular election. The second-quarter (April through June) House fundraising reports came out last week, and the results are alarming for Republicans. It’s not that GOP fundraising, in total, was bad: Many vulnerable incumbents had very solid quarters. Rather, it’s that Democratic fundraising was extraordinary, with dozens of Democratic candidates turning in blockbuster quarters and outraising their GOP opponents. Money isn’t everything, but one expects incumbents to have a clear financial edge on their opponents, and it’s not clear that some current GOP members will have even that with several months of buckraking to go before the Nov. 6 election.