Shift Puts Katko and NY-24 in Tossup Category
Crystal Ball: Democrats are better-positioned than Republicans to net seats
House Democrats’ massive battlefield is putting Republicans on defense across the country as strong Democratic challengers outwork entrenched Republican incumbents, exposing their toxic records on health care and continuing to pull in unprecedented fundraising hauls.
Sabato’s Crystal Ball shifted 4 districts towards Democrats – making John Katko one the most endangered incumbents in the country and moving three Frontline districts towards Democrats, two of which were won by President Trump in 2016:
NY-24: John Katko — Lean R to Toss-Up
NH-01: Chris Pappas — Lean D to Likely D
PA-07: Susan Wild — Lean D to Likely D
PA-08: Matt Cartwright —Lean D to Likely D
Key Points from Sabato’s Crystal Ball:
Three of the four changes upgrade Reps. Chris Pappas (D, NH-1), Susan Wild (D, PA-7), and Matt Cartwright (D, PA-8) from Leans Democratic to Likely Democratic. While all three have competent GOP challengers, key Republican outside groups do not appear likely to spend big outside dollars in any of the three races, which indicates to us that the incumbents are in decent shape for the stretch run.
[…]These are the kinds of districts where Trump needs to perform well — arguably, even better than he performed in 2016 — to once again win Pennsylvania, and that Republicans really need to compete for in order to win a House majority. But the region may not be as hospitable to Trump as it was four years ago.
Moving north from eastern Pennsylvania to upstate New York, Rep. John Katko (R, NY-24) appears to be in an increasingly competitive race against former college professor Dana Balter (D). Katko beat Balter by six points in 2018, making him one of the few Clinton-district Republicans to survive the Blue Wave. For much of the cycle, we thought Katko would be fine, but an increasing amount of outside spending has prompted us to reconsider. So too has a Siena College poll that showed Balter up 45%-42%. This race moves from Leans Republican to Toss-up.
Our overall House outlook — Democrats are better-positioned than Republicans to net seats — remains unchanged.
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