Realities of the Republican District
- Pennsylvania’s 18th Congressional District has reliably voted Republican.
- President Trump won PA-18 by 20 points. Romney won by 17 points.
- There are 114 GOP-held seats more competitive than PA-18, based on Cook PVI.
- The Current Cook Partisan Voter Index (PVI) for PA-18 is R+11.
- Republicans spent more than $10 million to defend a seat that was safe Republican and will not exist after November 2018.
DCCC $1 Million Investment
- The DCCC invested over $1 million in PA-18, starting in December 2017.
- Read more HERE
- The DCCC investment included:
- A strategically timed burst of TV advertisement, early in the campaign, while the Lamb campaign filled its coffers.
- A sustained and early field investment, with final GOTV push that hired local field staff, organized 1,130 volunteers, completed over 3,000 canvass shifts and had over 70,000 conversations with voters.
- A heavy-volume digital ad plan, including a GOTV burst in the final weeks. This is largest digital GOTV operation that the DCCC has ever ran.
- The DCCC utilized Facebook, Instagram, YouTube, Google Display, Spotify, Pandora and more, and more.
- An infusion into the Pennsylvania Democratic Party.
- We used cutting-edge analytics to identify and communicate with voters who were open to Connor Lamb’s unique biography and message.
- The DCCC invested based on it’s incredibly accurate polling and data.
- In the final weeks, the DCCC knew that the PA-18 race was a toss-up, and predicted a narrow Lamb upset.
- In fact, the DCCC’s final internal poll had Lamb earning 49.8% to Saccone’s 48.48%, which very closely mirrors the final results.
The Takeaways
- Republicans just lost a Trump +20 district, and the majority of targeted Republicans should seriously question their reelection prospects.
- Stay tuned for more Republican retirements in districts more competitive than PA-18. (Has anyone heard from Rep. Ryan Costello?)
- The GOP rate of investment in PA-18 is unsustainable across even a portion of the more competitive battlefield.
- Conor Lamb’s record of service to his country and community as a veteran and prosecutor made him a strong, resilient candidate, and the Republican partisan attacks failed to stick. He fit the district.
- The Republicans’ $10 million-worth of attacks based primarily on taxes and Leader Pelosi were not believable or relevant to voters – even in a district this Republican.
- Lamb raised over $3.5 million since January – mainly through energized small dollar donors – and had the resources to introduce himself and communicate his positive economic message.
- There are dozens of Democratic candidates like Conor Lamb – with deep records of service that take them outside the partisan frame.
- There are more than 60 candidates running for Congress in our targeted battlefield who are veterans, national security experts, CIA officers, job-creators and trusted elected leaders in their communities.
- Saccone’s profile should have been enough to carry him in this Republican district.
- Saccone is a veteran and elected official with previous double-digit win margins, and after being handpicked by the GOP, his campaign was fueled by an unprecedented resource advantage from GOP allies.
- The GOP’s failure is not explained by the quality of Saccone as a candidate or his campaign’s.
- Republicans called the tax bill their silver bullet — and then abandoned it.
- The Republicans declared that their tax bill would preserve their majority in the House, but when put to the test in PA-18, it backfired. This was evident when the Republican groups completely abandoned running television ads on taxes.
- Republicans do not have a single popular legislative accomplishment to tout.
- DCCC’s investments – mostly behind the scenes –provided a major boost to the Lamb campaign and were essential in such a Republican district.
- The DCCC knew that Lamb would get a better rate on television than GOP outside group, and the DCCC’s strategic $1 million investment, focused on field and digital, allowed him to spend more of his own money on television – at the lower candidate cost per point.
- On the flipside, Rick Saccone’s campaign was bankrolled by Washington SuperPACs that ran a very negative campaign– and voters knew it.