ICYMI · News · Press Release

“Suburbia”: House Dems’ Song of the Summer

Strong Candidates, Record-Fundraising, and Demographic Shifts Put House Dems In Strong Position to Expand House Majority

House Democrats are in a strong position to protect and expand their majority with a strong slate of candidates and record-level fundraising that are helping them go on offense in suburbs repulsed by Republican attacks on health care during a pandemic and undergoing rapid demographic shifts.

According to CNN, the share size of communities of color grew in 468 of the 488 counties classified as suburban by the Brookings Institution’s Metropolitan Policy Program from 2000 to 2019, and these places also saw a rise in education levels – both trends that are shifting the political realities of those areas toward Democrats.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee also launched its first-ever Hindi and Chinese language video ads as it ramps up in-language outreach to better engage communities of color in suburban districts going into the 92 days before election.

From the Associated Press:

The tale of two districts 1,600 miles apart spotlights that many pivotal House races hinge on suburban voters. While some like Brindisi’s have a more rural, blue collar feel than the diverse, better educated one outside Houston, an overriding factor will be how Trump is viewed in the district.

And that’s a problem for the GOP. Two years after a 40-seat surge fueled by wins in the suburbs hoisted Democrats to House control, Republican hopes of recapturing the majority have buckled along with Trump’s approval ratings. Some worry that the party will lose seats, an agonizing letdown from their one-time dream of retaking control by gaining 17 seats.

…Democrats are fortifying their chances with a money-raising bonanza. Since January 2019, all 29 Democrats in House districts Trump carried in 2016 have banked more money than their GOP challengers, usually by multiples. The same is true for all but two of the 24 other Democrats in seats Republicans said they’d pursue aggressively this year.

…Further bolstering Democrats is repulsion among educated voters over Trump’s racially inflammatory tirades, his mishandling of the coronavirus pandemic and crippled economy, and the fact that many suburbs are growing more diverse.

From The Hill

Democrats have recruited one of their most diverse slate of candidates for a prized program that targets top flip opportunities across the country.

Of the 31 members of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s (DCCC) Red to Blue program, 26 are women and 12 are people of color. Earning a spot provides candidates with a boost, including extra attention from national Democrats and access to expanded resources and fundraising opportunities…

…“Diversifying our party is not just a top priority, it’s an ongoing priority,” said Bustos. “Our work means we can grow the historic diversity of our caucus, and it would not be possible without a DCCC staff and team that reflect the Democratic coalition we represent.”

…Those efforts paid off in the 2018 midterms, which helped disprove the notion that candidates of color could only stand a chance in majority-minority districts.

From the New York Times:

Suburban districts like these have long been critical bases of Republican support, packed with affluent white voters who reliably chose Republicans to represent them in Congress. Democrats seized control of the House in 2018 by making inroads in communities like these, and Republicans have tied their hopes of reclaiming power to preserving their remaining footholds there. But as Mr. Trump continues to stumble in his response to the pandemic and seeks to stir up racist fears with pledges to preserve the “Suburban Lifestyle Dream,” such districts are slipping further from the party’s grasp, and threatening to drag down congressional Republicans in November’s elections.

Interviews with more than two dozen party officials, strategists and voters in areas like these help explain what recent polls have found: that Mr. Trump’s strategy is alienating independent and even some conservative voters — particularly women and better-educated Americans — who are turned off by his partisan appeals and disappointed in his leadership. From the suburbs of St. Louis to Omaha to Houston, they expressed deep concern about Mr. Trump’s approach to twin national crises, lamenting his confident declarations that the coronavirus was under control and his move to stoke racial divides after nationwide protests over police brutality against Black Americans.

…In Texas, where Democrats are targeting five seats that once were Republican strongholds explicitly gerrymandered to capture large sections of the suburbs, some steadfast conservative voters are now preparing to cast their first votes for Democratic congressional candidates, infuriated by the administration’s handling of the pandemic.

Cass Mattison and his wife, Samantha Mattison, who live in Sugar Land, just southwest of Houston, say they usually vote Republican, but they both plan to vote for Sri Kulkarni, a Democratic former Foreign Service officer running to replace Representative Pete Olson, a Republican who is retiring. They cite their party’s “very poor handling” of the pandemic “from top to bottom.”

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