Three top-tier elections forecasters shift TX-23 to “Lean Democratic” as GOP morale plummets
Congressmen John Carter (TX-31), Kenny Marchant (TX-24) and Mike McCaul (TX-10) are sweating bullets this morning, but it’s not from the Texas heat.
Will Hurd’s stunning decision to hang up his spurs marked the sixth Republican retirement of the last two weeks – and the third from Texas alone.
Carter, Marchant and McCaul are also surely thinking of their places on the DCCC’s Republican Retirement Watch List, which has already claimed three of their colleagues.
As the DCCC’s aggressive on-the-ground investment in the Lone Star State continues to shake their political landscape, Republicans across Texas are freaking out.
And can you blame them? The only thing sticking around guarantees these Texas Republicans is another opportunity to explain their deeply unpopular position on health care repeal that would end protections for people with pre-existing conditions and raise costs for Texas families.
Here’s what they’re reading:
- “Several state and national Republican operatives reached out to The Texas Tribune to react to the news. Nearly all of the commentary involved highly explicit language.”
Dallas Morning News: Hurd’s retirement “shook the political landscape” in Texas and D.C.
- “San Antonio Rep. Will Hurd, the House’s sole black Republican, shook the political landscape in both Texas and D.C. late Thursday by announcing that he will not seek reelection next year in his sprawling border district.”
- Hurd’s retirement is the third by a Texas Republican in the past week and the ninth by a party incumbent, dealing a blow to GOP efforts to regain control of the House in next year’s election.
- Representative Will Hurd of Texas, the only black Republican in the House, announced Thursday that he would not seek re-election next year, adding to a wave of departures that has unsettled party leaders as they hope to reclaim the majority in 2020.
Roll Call: “The news is a blow to House Republicans looking to win back the majority”
- “House Democrats are heavily targeting Texas this election cycle, and the 23rd District is at the top of their list. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has opened up headquarters in the Lone Star State and is targeting six GOP-held seats, largely in the increasingly diversifying Texas suburbs.”
AP: “Republicans are struggling to cope with life” in the minority
- “Hurd’s exit put the GOP ahead of its pace when 34 of its members stepped aside before the last elections — the party’s biggest total since at least 1930. It also underscored how Republicans are struggling to cope with life as the House minority party, today’s razor-sharp partisanship and Trump’s tantrums and tweets.”
The Hill: Republicans “think we’re going to get our ass kicked in 2020”
- “”Members hate being in the minority and think we’re going to get our ass kicked in 2020, and there will be a ton more retirements soon,” said a second GOP strategist, predicting that there could be upwards of 15 retirees this cycle.”
- “‘[Texas is] the new California,’ said the first GOP strategist. Hurd is the second House Republican from the Lone Star State to announce retirement, following Republican Rep. Pete Olson, who made his announcement last week.”
- “Democrats smell political blood in Texas and predicted hours after Hurd’s news broke that others will follow him.”
CBS News: The DCCC “has eyed Hurd’s Texas district as one of the most vulnerable in 2020”
- Democrats are “targeting swing districts, especially those with large Latino communities like Hurd’s. Nearly 65% of eligible voters in Texas’ 23rd Congressional District are Latino.”
Chris Hayes, MSNBC: “Time for the GOP to start fully freaking out about Texas.”
Sabato’s Crystal Ball: “TX-23 moves from Toss-up to Leans Democratic”
- “Crystal Ball House ratings change: TX-23 moves from Toss-up to Leans Democratic after Rep. Will Hurd’s shock retirement. Swing district, Clinton won it by 3.5. Arguably should still be a Toss-up but Hurd is a strong incumbent and the district is unlikely to vote for Trump”
Cook Political Report: “#TX23 moves from Toss Up to Lean D at @CookPolitical”
- “Huge news for Dems: Rep. Will Hurd (R) to retire in 2020. He’s probably the only R capable of holding the seat. #TX23 moves from Toss Up to Lean D at @CookPolitical”
- Texodus? After Olson & Hurd, attention shifts to GOP Reps. Mike McCaul in #TX10, Kenny Marchant in #TX24, John Carter in #TX31, who also won by skin of their teeth in 2018. This could get out of hand for Rs.
- “Hurd is one of just 3 remaining House Rs in districts won by Hillary Clinton in 2016, the House’s only black Republican, and is now the sixth Republican – and the third from TX – to announce retirement plans in the past ten days.”
- “The demographics of the district also favor Democrats. Less than a quarter of the district is non-Hispanic white, and 40 percent of the non-Hispanic white population has a bachelor’s degree or higher.”
Larry Sabato: “Dems have a great chance to win this seat.”
- “Blue Alert! Rep. Will Hurd (R-TX 23) retires. Dems have a great chance to win this seat. 100% of black House Republicans are leaving—because Hurd is the only one.”
- “All of this makes Texas even more interesting in 2020. Three hours GOP retirements so far, now two in competitive districts, a senate race, and tempting demographic trends for Democrats.”
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