News · Press Release

“The 1st District is in Play” – Reporting Highlights How Congressman Rob Wittman is More Vulnerable Than Ever

Virginian-Pilot: “For the first time in recent memory, Virginia’s 1st Congressional District may be ‘in play’ for Democrats”
New reporting from The Virginian-Pilot highlights how after nearly two decades in Washington, vulnerable Congressman Rob Wittman is facing the toughest race of his career.

VCU political science professor Alex Keena tells the Pilot that “the 1st District is in play,” citing Governor-elect Spanberger’s victory within the boundaries of Wittman’s district and growing support for Democrats in the Richmond suburbs.

Read key details from the Pilot for yourself:
  • Virginia’s 1st Congressional District could be in play for Democrats for the first time in recent history headed into the 2026 midterm elections.
  • Represented by Republican Rob Wittman, the district saw a surge of Democratic support Nov. 4. Across the board, Gov.-elect Abigail Spanberger performed better than Leslie Mehta, Wittman’s 2024 Democratic challenger.
  • Of note, Spanberger flipped James City County, which had narrowly gone for Wittman in 2024. She won with 55.3% of the vote there. Spanberger also eked out a 50.1% victory in York County, which Wittman won handily, and performed well in the Richmond suburbs, winning Chesterfield County with 58.7% of the vote. Four years ago, Gov. Glenn Youngkin won the county with 51.8%.
  • Even in deep-red Poquoson, Spanberger picked up seven percentage points over Mehta, gaining 29.7% of the vote there.
  • “It says that the 1st District is in play,” Alex Keena, an associate professor of political science at Virginia Commonwealth University, said of the recent election results…
  • That’s not a fluke, Keena said. Democrats have been performing better in Virginia over the past decade and a half. Part of that has to do with population growth in areas like the suburbs around Richmond, which generally favors Democrats.
  • The 1st District currently stretches from the Richmond suburbs, encompassing parts of Henrico, Chesterfield and Hanover, down toward the Middle Peninsula, including Williamsburg, James City County and York. It includes all or part of 18 counties in total.
  • Wittman is now serving his 10th term […]
  • A spokesperson for Wittman did not respond to multiple requests for comment […]
  • Last week, the Cook Political Report moved its rating of the 1st District to “lean Republican” from “likely Republican.” It also changed its rating of the 2nd District, which includes much of Hampton Roads, from “lean Republican” to “toss up.”
  • Nationally, Democrats are projecting confidence about Virginia’s 1st and 2nd districts.
  • “With the exception of Winsome Earle-Sears, nobody had a worse night than Jen Kiggans and Rob Wittman,” Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spokesperson Eli Cousin said in a statement. “The writing is on the wall: They will lose next November.”

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