There’s Something Happening in Iowa

House races in Iowa offer “fresh optimism” and “potential opportunity” – as Republicans “will be defending two purple House seats in a state where they got clobbered in Trump’s first midterm election” and the newly-open competitive 2nd district, where “Republicans, Democrats and independents […] who were familiar with the [Big, Ugly] bill expressed significant skepticism about it.”

DCCC Spokesperson Katie Smith:
“Mariannette Miller-Meeks and Zach Nunn are running scared, while Iowa Democrats are on offense. Miller-Meeks and Nunn are terrified to face their voters because they can’t defend their toxic billionaires-first agenda – Iowans are ready to elect new leadership next November.”  

Read more:

• Democrats searching for a revival in rural America are increasingly looking to Iowa, where a handful of races offer fresh optimism and potential opportunity…
• Democratic candidates have outperformed the party’s 2024 Iowa results in four special elections so far this year — including a Democratic win in a conservative state Senate district last week that broke the GOP’s supermajority in the chamber.
• Democrats also believe they can capitalize on backlash over President Donald Trump’s tariff policy, immigration crackdown and Medicaid spending cuts — as well as lagging economic growth. They say Trump hasn’t delivered on promises to lower prices.
• The party is entering 2026 with its eyes on…as many as three of Iowa’s four congressional seats — including southeast Iowa’s 1st District, where Bohannan lost to Republican Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks by just 799 votes…
• But potential headwinds facing Republicans are also on the horizon heading into an election year where Trump’s name doesn’t appear on the ballot, which history has shown often leaves his diehard supporters less motivated to vote.
• Iowa will be among the places to measure political fallout from that [Big, Ugly] law, regardless of what it’s called.

• Democrats are optimistic they can turn Iowa’s congressional races into a referendum on some of Trump’s policies, from imposing tariffs to canceling clean energy tax credits.
• They are also heralding a special election in Sioux City last month, in which a Democrat won a Trump district by double digits.
• “Hinson knows what we know: there’s change coming in Iowa,” said DCCC spokesperson Katie Smith in a statement.

• In more than two dozen interviews, Republicans, Democrats and independents in Hinson’s deeply red 2nd District who were familiar with the bill expressed significant skepticism about it.
• Maria Gourley, a 23-year-old ER nurse, had heard about the bill and was “absolutely worried” that Medicaid cuts could put extra pressure on her hospital’s emergency department.
• “Working in health care is already hard enough, and my career is everything to me, so if I see things get worse, it could affect my vote,” said Gourley, who has only ever voted Republican, as she was buying groceries and bags of dog food from the Walmart in Dubuque.
• Iowa Democrats were buoyed by a special-election win Tuesday, where Catelin Drey (D) flipped a state Senate seat located in the 4th Congressional District, ending a Republican supermajority in the chamber.
• Leaders at rural hospitals and health care centers — nonprofits that provide primary, dental, mental health and other care to medically underserved areas, with help from the federal government — are also speaking out in the district.
• Joe Lock, CEO of Eastern Iowa Health Center in Cedar Rapids, has worked in subsidized health care for two decades and said he has never seen such a threat to the health care system. He is an independent voter who supported both Democrats and Republicans in the 2024 presidential and state elections.
• “We operate on razor-thin margins,” he said, estimating that his health center will lose $3 million in Medicaid funding because of fewer people qualifying for the program as of Jan. 1, 2027, when the changes start.
• “It’s going to significantly impact hospitals and specifically rural critical access hospitals, which are all over the country,” he said.
• Farming equipment manufacturer John Deere announced layoffs last week, citing the impact of tariffs. But Aaron Lehman, head of the Iowa Farmers Union, which describes itself as nonpartisan, said farmers could face tight budgets as a knock-on effect of new requirements for food programs like SNAP.

###