Tom Kean Jr., Sherrill-District Congressman [New Jersey Globe]

Kean Jr. was already rated as one of the most vulnerable Republicans in all of Congress. Sherrill’s performance demonstrates that he has never been more vulnerable.

Read key points from the Globe below:

• When Rep. Tom Kean Jr. (R-Westfield) runs for re-election next year, he’ll be doing so in a district that voted – narrowly – for a Democrat in this year’s gubernatorial election.
• With nearly all of the vote counted, Democratic Gov.-elect Mikie Sherrill leads vanquished Republican Jack Ciattarelli by a one-point margin, 50.2% to 49.1%, in the 7th congressional district. Those numbers could still shift prior to certification, but it’s very unlikely they’ll shift enough to give Ciattarelli the 4,000-vote margin he’d need to retake the lead in the district, which covers a suburban and largely well-off section of North and Central Jersey.
• In 2021, Ciattarelli beat Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy by a whopping 12-point margin in the district, returning its suburban voters to their GOP roots after Biden’s success a year earlier.
• And in 2017, when Murphy won a landslide victory over GOP Lieutenant Gov. Kim Guadagno, he still lost the old incarnation of the 7th district (which was more Democratic-leaning than the current version) by six points.
• If those state-federal swings are replicated next year, it would mean Kean is on track to lose re-election to one of his Democratic challengers by double digits.

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