Over the last week, a number of vulnerable House Republicans have announced their retirements from districts that will be in the middle of the fight to take back the House in 2018. This is very bad news for Speaker Ryan and the NRCC. While the NRCC was already stuck on defense deep into the map, they are now faced with burning a huge amount of resources on open seats and the high likelihood of divisive primaries. Any way you look at it, vulnerable Republicans are staring down the barrel of a miserable midterm election with healthcare repeal and a do-nothing Congress hanging over their heads. More retirements are certain to come, and given that the DCCC predicted two of these retirements following Congresswoman Ros-Lehtinen’s in May, we are updating our 2018 Retirement Watch List with several more names:
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- Don Young (AK-AL)
- Vern Buchanan (FL-16)
- Mario Diaz-Balart (FL-25)
- Fred Upton (MI-06)
Frank LoBiondo (NJ-02)- Leonard Lance (NJ-07)
Rodney Frelinghuysen (NJ-11)- Pete King (NY-02)
Patrick Meehan (PA-07)- Charlie Dent (PA-15)
- Jaime Herrera Beutler (WA-03)
- Dave Reichert (WA-08)
Ed Royce (CA-39)Ron DeSantis (FL-06)- Bruce Poliquin (ME-02)
- Pete Sessions (TX-32)
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UPDATE: THE WRITING ON THE WALL
Yesterday, Congresswoman Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (FL-27) announced her unexpected retirement and opened up the best-performing Clinton district held by a Republican. She may not admit it, but Ros-Lehtinen’s district has long been trending away from Republicans: her margin of victory has shrunk each cycle, without Democrats making notable investments.
The likely motivating factors behind Ros-Lehtinen’s retirement are her inability to defend House Republicans’ misplaced priorities and dysfunction in this very Democratic leaning district and the daunting prospect of running for reelection in the shadow of President Trump. There’s no question that her retirement is a game changer and this race is a top pick-up opportunity in 2018.
Given the negative national environment for the Republican Party, the DCCC knows that there are more retirements to come, particularly in districts that tend to vote for Democrats in other elected positions. The following is our first look at the 2018 Republican Retirement Watchlist. The list will drive unique House Republican accountability focused on the embarrassment of being part of this dysfunctional GOP-controlled Washington D.C.
- Don Young (AK-AL)
- Vern Buchanan (FL-16)
- Mario Diaz-Balart (FL-25)
- Fred Upton (MI-06)
- Frank Lobiondo (NJ-02)
- Leonard Lance (NJ-07)
- Rodney Frelinghuysen (NJ-11)
- Pete King (NY-02)
- Patrick Meehan (PA-07)
- Charlie Dent (PA-15)
- Jaime Herrera-Beutler (WA-03)
- Dave Reichert (WA-08)
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TO: Interested Parties
FR: Tyler Law, DCCC National Press Secretary
DT: April 29, 2017
RE: Paul Ryan’s 100 Days of Humiliation Threatens Republican Midterm Prospects
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At the close of President Trump’s first 100 days in office, Speaker Paul Ryan is unpopular, ineffective, and a growing threat to the entire Republican Party. Ryan’s priorities for the 115th Congress have proven to be way out-of-touch with the American people. Most devastatingly, Ryan has staked his Speakership on repealing the increasingly popular Affordable Care Act, even if that means breaking his many promises to protect people with preexisting conditions. Ryan’s misguided priorities and humiliating governing failures have taken a lasting hit on his reputation with the American people. In just a few short months, he has put already vulnerable House Republicans at further risk of losing their seats and damaged the entire Republican brand ahead of the 2018 midterms.
OUT-OF-TOUCH PRIORITIES
House Republicans stumbled out of the gate on day one by attempting to gut the Office of Congressional Ethics – the only independent ethics watchdog in the House – without warning or bipartisan input. Predictably, the backlash was swift and brutal, resulting in negative coverage for Republicans back home and Paul Ryan’s first humiliating defeat of the year. Ryan also made amockery of the Russia investigation while Republicans voted repeatedly to shield Trump’s tax returns. And despite polling showing that only 6% of people want their personal data to be sold without their consent, Ryan pushed through a creepy anti-privacy bill that allows internet service providers to do just that. Always the rigid ideologue, Ryan has also demanded – against the opposition of the vast majority of Americans and even some House Republicans – that stripping funding for Planned Parenthood be included in any ACA repeal bill.
REPEAL & RIPOFF COLLAPSES (TWICE)
No issue has shattered the myth of Paul Ryan as policy wonk more than healthcare. After seven years of finger-pointing, meaningless votes, and empty rhetoric, Ryan gaveled in the new Congress fully intent on repealing ACA. But it didn’t take long before it was painfully obvious that he had zero clue how to construct coherent healthcare legislation that could pass the House, let alone the Senate. As proof of his predicament, Republicans quickly drafted a repeal bill behind closed doors, without hearings, and with no outreach to Democrats.
The only thing worse than the process was the product. The long-awaited House Republican plan would rip away coverage from 24 million Americans, raise premiums and out-of-pocket costs, and slap an age-tax on people over 50. Repeal & Ripoff quickly garnered widespread opposition from groups across the ideological spectrum, including AARP, the American Medical Association, the American Hospital Association, and the National Committee to Preserve Social Security & Medicare. With only 17% support and a Speaker who can’t organize his caucus out of a paper bag, the bill went down in flames, prompting a round of humiliating headlines…but not before the Speaker got 14 of his most vulnerable Republicans to walk the plank in committee. Brilliant…
After the stunning defeat and with Ryan’s political capital at an all-time low, he embraced an amendment to Repeal and Ripoff that would remove protections for people with preexisting conditions while providing an exemption for members of Congress and their staff. Ryan’s support came despite the fact that he and almost every vulnerable House Republican promised they would never do this. Apparently he did not bother to take the caucus’ temperature or count votes beforehand, because the bill failed to gain anywhere close to enough votes yet again. With only 20% of people currently believing that Republicans are very likely to repeal the ACA, Ryan’s full-throated support of ending protections for pre-existing conditions may go down as one of the dumbest political decisions in recent memory, and he did it just in time to cap off the first 100 days!
PLUMMETING POPULARITY FRACTURES REPUBLICANS
Paul Ryan’s approval rating and favorability are understandably in a free-fall. At the end of March, and shortly after the first repeal failure, Ryan’s approval had dropped down to 33%. Now, he’s sitting at a shockingly low 22% favorability rating (-18% underwater), and this poll was taken before the latest repeal humiliation. Adding insult to injury, the NBC poll measured the favorability of 11 political figures and institutions…Ryan came in dead last. Now, only 24% of Americans approve of this Ryan-led Congress while the Democratic Party is a full 11 points more popular than the Republican Party.
It’s no surprise that Trump allies and conservative pundits are already voicing frustration at Ryan’s repeated failures throughout the past 100 days. Conservative House Republicans are also publicly questioning Ryan’s ability to remain Speaker. Perhaps most painfully for Ryan, no one is buying the silly pamphlet touting wonk shtick anymore.
DEMOCRATS EXPAND MAP AS REPUBLICANS RETREAT
Paul Ryan’s failure to get the job done has serious ramifications for the 2018 midterms. Based on historical trends and President Trump’s stunning unpopularity, House Democrats have already started the cycle on offense. The political environment has only gotten worse for House Republicans under Paul Ryan’s “leadership.” Grassroots democratic enthusiasm has forced the NRCC and Ryan’s Super PAC to pour millions of dollars into traditionally ruby red districts while the DCCC has been aggressively recruiting top-tier candidates across an expanded battlefield, launching new initiatives, and shattering online, grassroots fundraising records.
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