| Vulnerable Pennsylvania Republicans Ryan Mackenzie, Rob Bresnahan, Scott Perry, and Brian Fitzpatrick are in the hot seat.
The Washington Post reports this morning that in Pennsylvania, “four Republican seats — enough to flip control of the lower chamber — are competitive this year. And Democrats are planning to hit them with all they’ve got.”
The reporting highlights how Pennsylvania Republicans are on their back foot after voting for the largest cuts to Medicaid in history, “with polling for the law hitting abysmal levels.” And Democrats will have a dominant top of the ticket in Governor Josh Shapiro, “who won all four contested districts by double digits in 2022.”
Read highlights from the Washington Post’s reporting for yourself:
The Washington Post: The one state that could determine House control next year
By Dan Merica and Matthew Choi | July 28, 2025
- Four Republican seats — enough to flip control of the lower chamber — are competitive this year. And Democrats are planning to hit them with all they’ve got.
- The four districts are represented by Scott Perry, a particularly vulnerable Congress member in a district that includes Harrisburg, the capital; Ryan Mackenzie, a freshman lawmaker in a district across the Lehigh Valley; Rob Bresnahan, a freshman lawmaker in a northeast district that includes Scranton; and Brian Fitzpatrick […]
- “They are critical to control of the House,” Austin Davis, the commonwealth’s Democratic lieutenant governor, said of the four districts. “It is not hyperbole to say whoever wins or loses these races will decide who is controlling Congress.”
- […] Democrats are feeling optimistic about their chances of winning a majority in 2026.
- The political ads in the state have begun. Affordable Pennsylvania, launched by the Campaign for a Family Friendly Economy, has been running an ad lamenting the impact of President Donald Trump’s tariffs on costs in Perry’s district. And operatives for the group tell us exclusively that they will expand their ad buy to Mackenzie’s district with an ad focused on rising prices.
- “Pennsylvanians deserve to know that their Republican Congress members told them one thing, then went to Washington and did something else,” said Sondra Goldschein, head of the Campaign for a Family Friendly Economy. “And that education — and accountability — has begun and must continue.”
- Democrats remain confident […] saying voters will be motivated by antipathy toward Trump and his top legislative priority: a bill that makes broad cuts to the social safety net to lock in tax cuts for top earners.
- Democrats have been aggressively challenging the law’s cuts to Medicaid and other safety net programs. The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office anticipates more than 10 million Medicaid recipients to be thrown off the program by 2034 as a result of the legislation. The messaging appears to be breaking through, with polling for the law hitting abysmal levels. Nearly twice as many voters disapproved of the bill as approved of it, according to a June Washington Post poll.
- The other reason for the Democratic confidence: Gov. Josh Shapiro. […] Down-ballot Democrats are practically giddy about the idea that the governor who won all four contested districts by double digits in 2022 will be topping the ticket in 2026.
- […] A Democrat close to the governor told us that it is “very important” to him to be involved in these competitive House races.
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