NBC 10’s Lauren Mayk: Purple Pennsylvania, the Keystone state has been a critical swing state in the presidential election and this year there are several congressional districts that could swing either way in the midterms, whichever way they go that could determine which party controls Congress next year. […]
Cook Political Report House Editor Erin Covey: Republicans have an incredibly tenuous hold on the House right now. Democrats only would need to flip three seats to take control of the House in 2027. And right now the battleground of competitive districts is relatively small, but it should give Democrats more than enough opportunities to do so. […]
Mayk: You’ve had the seat in the Lehigh Valley currently held by Ryan Mackenzie as a toss up. You recently, though, added a Pennsylvania seat to your list of toss ups. That’s the one in the Scranton area, the 8th district held by Rob Bresnahan, as a toss up. What changed there to prompt that shift for you?
Covey: […] We shifted it for a couple of reasons, one reason being that the broader political environment is favorable to Democrats right now given where the president’s approval rating is at. And then of course with this district in particular, the Republican member of Congress here Rob Bresnahan, who’s a freshman, has had some issues with stock trading that has been extensively covered by national and local media over the past year. He’s been one of the most prolific traders in Congress despite the fact that he had previously campaigned on banning members of Congress from stock trading. And that has become a real issue for him and made him more vulnerable than he would be otherwise.
Mayk: And I mentioned the Lehigh Valley seat, Ryan Mackenzie holds that seat right now, why do you consider that one to be a toss up?
Covey: Pennsylvania 7 is on paper the most difficult of these seats that Republicans hold in Pennsylvania. And that’s because this is a seat where Trump only carried it by about three points in 2024. Ryan Mackenzie, who’s a freshman, only won his race by about a point last cycle. And so this is going to be a really tough race for him because he is no longer running in a more neutral or favorable to Republicans political environment like he had in 2024. […] At this point you know this is a seat that regardless of who is running is going to be competitive by nature of the partisanship of the district.
Mayk: Pennsylvania has more toss ups according to your calculations than any other state. What does that tell you, is there a common theme there?
Covey: Yeah it’s a good question. The third toss up race that we have is Pennsylvania’s 10th district held by Republican Scott Perry. This is a seat that has been trending Democrats’ way a little bit over the past decade. […] There are not that many truly competitive districts in the country and there’s just a disproportionate number in Pennsylvania. So you have- and they’re spread out all across the state, you have Northeast Pennsylvania, Central Pennsylvania, the Lehigh Valley and then I also want to mention Brian Fitzpatrick’s in a district in the North Philadelphia suburbs that has the potential, Bucks County, to be competitive. This is a seat that Harris actually narrowly carried […] that’s a race that could certainly become more competitive as we get closer to November.
