What CA-41 Voters Are Reading: “This Inland congressional district could help decide control of Congress”

“Calvert won by a narrow margin in 2022 and presidential election turnout in 2024 is expected to be much higher and more Democratic”

Yesterday, the Press-Enterprise released a new report on the race between increasingly vulnerable Republican Ken Calvert, who has spent the last year enabling MAGA chaos and extremism in Congress and ignoring the needs of California’s working families, and Democratic challenger Will Rollins.

According to the Press-Enterprise, Calvert’s extremist voting record – from attacking LGBTQ+ centers to voting against reproductive rights time and again – is entirely out-of-touch with the toss-up district and endangers him even more.

Meanwhile, Rollins has built a diverse coalition of voters and donors, with his 2024 campaign “[breaking] a record for off-year fundraising by a non-incumbent.” As a result, experts say voters in California’s 41st are recognizing that it’s time for change and only “a matter of time before Democrats break through.”

Read highlights of what Inland Empire readers are seeing below:

The Press-Enterprise: This Inland congressional district could help decide control of Congress
Jeff Horseman | January 21, 2024

• “The race is pivotal because the Republicans have a very thin majority in the House. Democrats can win control by flipping just a few seats,” Jack Pitney, a professor of politics at Claremont McKenna College, said via email.

• “Every close race will get enormous national attention, and this race will be one of them … The race could come down to a few thousand or even a few hundred votes.”

• Rollins said in an emailed statement that his 2022 campaign “built a big tent coalition that included Democrats, independents, and Republicans.”

• He said his 2024 campaign broke a record for off-year fundraising by a non-incumbent “through tens of thousands of individual grassroots donors, and not a dime from corporate PACs … I’m excited to finish what we started by running a positive and hopeful campaign focused on securing good jobs, wages, and benefits for Riverside County families.”

• Federal campaign finance records show Rollins raised more than $1.7 million for his campaign as of September, and POLITICO reported he raised more than $2.8 million through the end of 2023.

• In the past, Calvert has voted against abortion rights and legislation affirming LGBTQ rights. Now he’s campaigning in a district with a robust LGBTQ community in Palm Springs and an openly gay candidate in Rollins.

• The 41st is squarely on a nationwide map of competitive districts, clustered mainly in California and New York, viewed by both parties as critical to winning the House, where Republicans currently hold a 7-seat majority.

• “After coming narrowly close last cycle, the DCCC is all hands on deck to unseat Ken Calvert — one of the most self-serving and out-of-touch politicians in Congress — this November,” committee spokesperson Dan Gottlieb said via email.

• If it’s anything like 2022, this year’s race will be heated. Two years ago, Rollins accused Calvert of using his office to enrich himself while supporting right-wing extremism, including efforts to overturn Biden’s 2020 win.

• Rollins’ ads accused Calvert of steering federal funds in the mid-2000s to road improvements that raised the value of land he sold for a profit. 

• Calvert was among 147 House Republicans who voted against certifying Arizona’s and Pennsylvania’s 2020 election results. 

• The race could come down to the choices of the district’s roughly 89,000 no-party-preference voters, who account for about 19% of the 41st’s electorate.

• “I think this pool of voters is a little bit more peripheral in their engagement with politics…” Wasserman said. “But they may be open to a message that it’s time for change. And when you have a three-decade-long incumbent running against someone who hasn’t served (in Congress) before, that may work in Rollins’ favor.”

• Wasserman believes it’s “a matter of time before Democrats break through” in the 41st.

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