Iowa Republicans are in trouble and “IA-02 is in play.”
- Last week, Democrats overperformed by 13 points in the TN-07 special election.
- Earlier this week, Democrats overperformed by 11 points in an Iowa state house special election.
- In August, Democrats overperformed by 22 points in a Trump +12 state senate district to flip the seat.
- In March, Democrats overperformed by 24 points in a Trump +27 state house seat.
- And earlier this year, Democrats overperformed by 25 points to flip a Trump +21 seat.
Seeing a pattern here? With this degree of overperformance in Trump’s +10 margin in IA-02, Democrats are on track to flip this open seat.
With “a swing half as large as what we saw in Tennes[s]ee would not only doom Representatives Zach Nunn (IA-03) and Mariannette Miller-Meeks (IA-01), it would endanger many more House Republicans around the country” – a flashing warning sign for Republicans in IA-02.
DCCC Spokesperson Katie Smith:
“Iowa Republicans are in trouble, Democrats are on offense, and IA-02 is in play. We’ll flip this seat because Iowa voters are tired of Republicans’ broken promises as they raise costs, slash health care, and prioritize their DC party bosses.”
Read more:
KHOI’s Capitol Week: Tennessee special indicates IA-02 is in play
- But last Tuesday, GOP candidate Matt Van Epps won a special election for Tennessee’s seventh district by about 9 points. Donald Trump had carried the district by 22 points in the 2024 presidential election.
- You might not be very impressed by a Democrat overperforming by about 13 points. In several Iowa legislative special elections this year, Democrats have outperformed the Kamala Harris baseline by more than 20 points. But the turnout was extremely high for a special election, which makes the outcome more worrying for Republicans. As David Nir of The Downballot observed, “This was no sleepy, low-turnout affair. Voter participation was at midterm levels, which means that dozens of slightly bluer but still very red Republican seats could be in play next year.”
- To be clear: a swing half as large as what we saw in Tennes[s]ee would not only doom Representatives Zach Nunn (IA-03) and Mariannette Miller-Meeks (IA-01), it would endanger many more House Republicans around the country.
- On Tuesday night, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee was out with a statement saying the result in Tennessee showed that at least nine other Republican-held House districts—including IA-02—“are now undoubtedly in play.”
- That is not far-fetched. Remember that in 2018, Abby Finkenauer defeated GOP incumbent Rod Blum in a similar district.
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