| As Iowans see grocery, gas, and health care costs continue to soar, new reporting is highlighting how voters are ready to reject Mariannette Miller-Meeks, Joe Mitchell, and Zach Nunn.
Pulse check for how things are going for Miller-Meeks, Mitchell, and Nunn (hint: badly)…
- The Bulwark: “Democrat Christina Bohannan listened to a roundtable made up of conservatives, liberals, and independents. But notwithstanding their partisan and ideological differences, each one repeatedly emphasized the same thing: Everything is too expensive.”
- Punchbowl News: “Democrats are slamming Republicans for backing the Iran war and Trump’s tariffs — two factors that have exacerbated financial pressures facing farmers.”
- Punchbowl News: “Democratic momentum could cost [Joe] Mitchell in the race for Iowa’s open 2nd District. The northeastern Iowa seat has been represented by Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson since 2021 and voted for President Donald Trump by 10 points in 2024.”
- The Bulwark: “I was a bit shocked when I traveled to the GOP-heavy Panora, Iowa (pop. 1,093) for a Sarah Trone Garriott event and it was a big turnout for such a tiny Monday night event at a public library.”
- The Bulwark: “…[Nunn] even brought Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth to the district for campaign events in August… Nunn’s choice of celebrity guest directly linked him to the horribly unpopular Iran war.”
DCCC Spokesperson Katie Smith:
“The writing is on the wall for Mariannette Miller-Meeks, Zach Nunn, and Joe Mitchell. Iowans have had enough of these three siding with D.C. insiders and against them, and voters are ready for change.”
Read more:
The Bulwark: The Road to a Democratic House Runs Through Iowa
- Now, the path to a Democratic House majority lies across the Midwest thanks to a combination of opportune historical conditions, the regional consequences of the Trump administration’s economic policies, and voters whose political allegiances aren’t yet set in stone.
- At the public library in Panora, a town of about 1,100 in a county that went for Trump by a margin of 37 points in 2024, roughly 3 percent of the population had filled the meeting room close to capacity. A local man who had seen Democratic House candidate Sarah Trone Garriott speak several times before told me that he had expected maybe five people to show up, as is common for political events in this town; the tally ended up over thirty. Something is different this cycle, he said. “People are pissed off.” And in his view, incumbent Rep. Zach Nunn can’t blame anyone but himself for that anger.
- Nunn…has made quite a few blunders over the past few months. He has never held a public town hall, he has repeatedly backed the Trump administration’s tariff policies, and he even brought Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth to the district for campaign events in August. (One of those events, a campaign fundraiser–cum–veterans benefit, was called “Operation Top Nunn.”)
- Putting aside the irregular repurposing of the secretary of defense—traditionally an apolitical cabinet position—as a campaign prop, Nunn’s choice of celebrity guest directly linked him to the horribly unpopular Iran war.
- In Panora, Trone Garriott even had a laugh about Nunn and Hegseth dressing alike during the political stunt. “They were wearing the same outfit. They had done their hair the same way. They were wearing the same sunglasses,” she told me. “I mean, they clearly had coordinated how they were going to dress like twins, and he could not have aligned himself and tied him to this disastrous war more directly than in that moment.”
- Trone Garriott said anger about the war (and its consequences for gas and diesel prices in particular) has given her campaign a lot of its momentum.
- “I mean, folks are so frustrated,” she said. “They were promised lower prices. They were promised no wars. They were promised stability, and all they’ve gotten is chaos, and it’s costing them deeply.”
- During a focus group in a small clubhouse in New Virginia, a town less than half the size of Panora, Democrat Christina Bohannan listened to a roundtable made up of conservatives, liberals, and independents. But notwithstanding their partisan and ideological differences, each one repeatedly emphasized the same thing: Everything is too expensive.
- Gas prices are hurting virtually everyone, from commuters to farmers. Farmers participating in the roundtable said diesel costs, which are currently soaring in large part because of the war in Iran, have an outsized effect on their work. One farmer offered that a bushel of corn used to cover the cost of four gallons of diesel, but these days, a single bushel would cover just a single gallon.
- “I think that people are tired of paying super high costs on food and gas and everything else,” [Bohannan] said. “They’re tired of what’s happening with our health care being cut and their health insurance premiums skyrocketing. They know that Mariannette Miller-Meeks is responsible for that. You can kind of draw a direct line from the votes she’s taken to high costs, and people know it.”
Punchbowl News: Will the blue wave sweep over Iowa’s 2nd District?
- If there is a blue wave next month, the Democratic momentum could cost [Joe] Mitchell in the race for Iowa’s open 2nd District. The northeastern Iowa seat has been represented by Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson since 2021 and voted for President Donald Trump by 10 points in 2024.
- … given how bullish Democrats are about statewide candidates Rob Sand and Josh Turek, many in the party believe Democrat Lindsay James has a shot to defeat Mitchell.
- James, a 46-year-old chaplain, has been a state legislator since 2019. She’s centered her messaging around a statewide “cost of living crisis.”
- “All of these policies, especially the tariffs and the war in Iran, have been impulsive and chaotic, and are driving up costs for hardworking families in my state,” James told us in Cedar Rapids. “Enough is enough. It’s time to have a change.”
- Iran war. Mitchell said he wouldn’t have…vot[ed] for what he called “knee-jerk, partisan” Democratic-led war power resolutions to end the Iran war.
- James said she would end the war immediately and redirect the money spent on the Iran conflict back to the 2nd District.
Punchbowl News: Nunn’s delicate election season dance
- It’s not easy being a vulnerable House Republican up for reelection this cycle. Just look at the dilemma Rep. Zach Nunn (R-Iowa) is facing as he works to save his Des Moines-area swing seat.
- More so than most House Republicans, Nunn has tied himself closely to President Donald Trump’s administration.
- Cabinet appearances. Iowa’s 3rd District has become a must-stop destination for Cabinet secretaries this year as Nunn faces a strong challenge from Democratic state Sen. Sarah Trone Garriott.
- But no visit drew as much attention as Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s appearance — in his personal capacity — at a Nunn fundraiser during the Iowa State Fair in August.
- Democratic response. In Trone Garriott’s view, Nunn knows he’s trailing in the race.
- “All the signs are showing us ahead. We’re hearing it on the doors. We’re seeing it in every possible way, and I can see it in my opponent too,” Trone Garriott told us. “He seems really scared, really stressed out. So he’s trying to distance himself from the war and Trump.”
- On the stump, Trone Garriott constantly attacks Nunn for being the deciding vote five times on Iran war powers resolutions.
- Agriculture watch. Iowa Democrats are hoping to capitalize on what they describe as a farm crisis to win back rural voters. Democrats are slamming Republicans for backing the Iran war and Trump’s tariffs — two factors that have exacerbated financial pressures facing farmers.
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