Scott MacFarlane: In New Jersey and Virginia, it wasn’t just that Democrats won in 2025. They won in a blowout. These were 14-15 point wins in states that had nail biters four years earlier in their gubernatorial races. So there’s something here Democrats think could form as an early indication of a blue wave […]
21 points. That’s the swing both those governors saw in Hispanic turnout and Hispanic support in key districts in their states. Hudson County, New Jersey, Manassas, Virginia. They think that’s an indication the Hispanic vote is turning heavily towards Democrats in those states, which they think is an indication of the broader political playing field […]
Here’s the bottom line. You’ve got four seats Democrats are trying to flip in those two states combined. Four they think they’ve got a good shot at. One in New Jersey, the Seventh District. In Virginia, it’s the First, Second, and Fifth. They have moderate nominees in all four of those districts giving themselves a fighting chance there […]
Abigail Spanberger tells me at this point in time in 2022, there were 200,000 people who turned out to vote. Now, as of this year, 450,000 have turned out to vote already. That is more than double at this point in the calendar… Something is going on in Virginia that represents the broader United States potential blue wave.
READ ON MEIDAS TOUCH:
- The first ripple of a midterm “blue wave” was spotted 343 days ago.
- That’s where then-Congresswoman Mikie Sherrill (D-NJ) was celebrating an overwhelming victory in New Jersey’s 2025 gubernatorial race on November 4, 2025.
- There were also some yelps minutes earlier in a ballroom 300 miles to the south.
- Inside the Richmond, Virginia Convention Center, then-Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-VA) was declaring victory. Her supporters were marveling at a bonkers 15-point win by Spanberger in a state that saw narrow finishes in each of its gubernatorial elections this century.
- The pathway to a Democratic majority in Congress in 2027 includes an improvement in the party’s performance with Latino voters.
- A Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee memo from November 7, 2025 – three days after the New Jersey election – revealed a key data point: In New Jersey’s most Hispanic county (Hudson County), Sherrill overperformed Vice President Harris’ 2024 margin by 21.6 points, the largest overperformance in any New Jersey county.
- The memo said, “Hispanic communities in Virginia reflected the same pattern with Spanberger’s biggest overperformance coming in Manassas Park, Virginia (the most Hispanic locality in the commonwealth), where she outperformed Harris with over 21 points.”
- Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spokesman Eli Cousin told Scott MacFarlane Reports, “We are seeing clear signs of enthusiasm across the battlefield, including a surge in early turnout in both Virginia and New Jersey. There are incredible pick up opportunities in both states that will help propel Democrats back into the House majority.”
