🚨 RATINGS CHANGE: Crystal Ball Shifts MI-04 in Democrats’ Direction to “Lean Republican”

Crystal Ball writes in part:

• “[MI-04] has definitely become more competitive relative to Michigan as a whole: Mitt Romney carried it by 6 points in 2012 while he was losing statewide by nearly 10; by 2024, Donald Trump carried it by 5.5 points while winning statewide by a little under 1.5.” 
• “…[Huizenga] has drawn a well-funded opponent, state Sen. Sean McCann (D).”
• “If 2018 showed us anything, it’s that historically-Republican places that nonetheless seemed to prefer the pre-Trump version of the GOP may be open to a Democrat under the right midterm circumstances.”

This ratings change is the latest indication that momentum is on Sean McCann’s side as Bill Huizenga faces the toughest race of his career: 

• McCann outraised Huizenga by $400,000 in the first quarter of 2026.
• Polling finds Huizenga and McCann statistically tied, with Huizenga underwater with voters.
• A recent Republican poll found the generic ballot in MI-04 “virtually split” with Trump completely underwater in the district.
• Inside Elections also moved MI-04 in Democrats’ direction at the end of last year.

DCCC Spokesperson Katie Smith:
“Alarm bells are ringing for Bill Huizenga, who is facing the toughest race of his career as he is forced to answer for his long record of serving himself instead of Michiganders: tripling his wealth in Congress, cutting his own taxes, and taking lavish vacations instead of doing his job. Sean McCann will win this race and bring real leadership back to Southwest Michigan.”

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