In the wake of Speaker Paul Ryan’s retirement news today, Sabato’s Crystal Ball has shifted the open seat in Kansas’s 2nd Congressional District toward Democrats citing the strong candidacy of Paul Davis. The Kansas City Star recently reported on the Republicans’ recruitment failure with a local consultant calling the candidates running in the 2nd District “maybe the weakest field in a Republican seat that you will ever find.”
“Speaker Paul Ryan’s departure is a symptom of a very broken Washington that has left hardworking Kansans behind,” said DCCC Spokesperson Rachel Irwin. “Kansas Republicans are running to replicate the same failed policies of Ryan and Brownback that profit big donors and special interests. Voters looking for a better direction in Washington have a trusted voice in Paul Davis, who has a track record of working across the aisle to get results for Kansans.”
Exit Paul Ryan
Another blow to Republican odds in the House
Kyle Kondik, Managing Editor, Sabato’s Crystal Ball
April 11th, 2018
http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/exit-paul-ryan/
The political world was rocked Wednesday morning by House Speaker Paul Ryan’s (R, WI-1) decision to not seek reelection to his southeastern Wisconsin House seat. That said, this really should not have come as that much of a surprise. Rumors had been swirling for months that Ryan was not long for the House, and we flagged this strong possibility for Crystal Ball readers more than a month ago when we first listed Ryan’s district on our list of competitive House seats, moving it from Safe Republican to Likely Republican.— House Speaker Paul Ryan’s (R, WI-1) retirement makes his now-open seat a Toss-up, although the seat definitely sits to the right of the national average.
— Ryan’s departure adds to a very high number of open seats, and some Republicans could take his exit as a signal to leave the House as well. This is another bad sign for the Republicans’ prospects for holding the House.
— We have two other ratings changes in open seats: KS-2 moves from Leans Republican to Toss-up, while the retirement of Rep. Dennis Ross (R, FL-15) brings his seat on to the board as Likely Republican.
Table 1: Crystal Ball House ratings changes
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Ryan’s exit prompts us to move another open seat toward the Democrats. Ryan’s retirement has nothing to do with the actual specifics of that race, but for consistency’s sake, if WI-1 is a Toss-up, then so is KS-2, an open seat in Kansas where 2014 gubernatorial nominee Paul Davis (D) is running a strong race against an uncertain field of Republicans. Local observers seem to think Davis has a 50-50 or better chance to win the district, and while it voted for Trump by about 18 points in 2016, Davis carried it in the 2014 gubernatorial race and Democrats won a version of the district in 2006, when ex-Rep. Nancy Boyda (D) won in a noteworthy upset. She ended up losing in 2008 to Rep. Lynn Jenkins (R, KS-2), who is retiring this cycle.
With these ratings changes, there are now 13 Republican-held House seats rated as Toss-ups or worse for Republicans. As we’ve been noting recently, these open seats are a very important part of the Democrats’ path to potentially winning the House.{ai; davos
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