“After Republicans’ previous congressional map was struck down for its illegal partisan gerrymander, these newly drawn districts mean Deborah Ross and Kathy Manning are on a clear path to serving in Congress. I look forward to welcoming them to our majority. This means not only will North Carolina add two Democrats to their federal delegation, but these races also represent a clear example of Democrats on offense this cycle and show just how steep Republicans’ path is to challenge for the House gavel.” – DCCC Chairwoman Cheri Bustos
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To: Interested Parties
From: Sarah Guggenheimer, DCCC Regional Press Secretary
Date: March 3, 2020
Subject: The Case Against Alain Swain and Lee Haywood
Tonight’s primary results in North Carolina’s 2nd and 6th Congressional District provide a clear path for Democrats to expand our House majority in the upcoming 2020 general election with both Deborah Ross and Kathy Manning respectively set up for sweeping victories in their districts.
After North Carolina’s previous congressional maps were struck down for partisan gerrymandering, the new map gives Democrats a chance to win additional seats in the state, particularly in these two districts.
In fact, Republicans found these new districts so unfriendly toward their backwards agenda that incumbents Mark Walker and George Holding both decided to retire rather than face an election they knew they would lose.
Running to replace George Holding is Deborah Ross. Ross is a former civil rights lawyer and State Representative who worked for 10 years to protect voting rights, fund transit and transportation projects, increase access to affordable housing and raise the minimum wage. She’ll be facing off against Alan Swain in her general election.
Kathy Manning is a mom, businessperson, and a community leader who has spent 30 years bringing people together to make her community of Greensboro a better place for everyone. Now she is ready to take her skills and determination to Washington to fight for hard-working North Carolinians. She’ll be facing off against Lee Haywood in the newly redrawn 6th congressional district.
Both Ross and Manning are on track to represent North Carolina in next year’s Congress, delivering results for their districts and building on Democrats historic successes in 2018.
WHAT THEY’RE SAYING
FiveThirtyEight: The new map makes it very likely that Democrats will pick up two House seats in North Carolina in 2020. That’s important because it makes Republicans’ quest to regain House control — or at least eat into Democrats’ majority — that much harder. In effect, Republicans need to flip two additional Democratic-held seats just to stand pat in the House. [FiveThirtyEight, 12/6/19]
Bloomberg Government: North Carolina may play a starring role in the fight for control of Congress in 2020. A court-ordered redistricting gives Democrats a strong chance to add two House seats they wouldn’t have been able to count on otherwise, and that in turn diminishes Republican efforts to regain the majority. [Bloomberg Government, 12/17/19]
Greensboro News & Record Headline: Mark Walker opts to sit out this election after his House district became a Democratic one. What’s next for him? [Greensboro News & Record, 12/16/19]
Politico Headline: Republican George Holding will retire rather than run in deep-blue seat [Politico, 12/6/19]
Roll Call Headline: Democrats could pick up at least 2 new seats with new NC districts [Roll Call, 12/2/19]
REPUBLICANS HAVE ALL BUT GIVEN UP ON THESE SEATS
Republicans Alain Swain and Lee Haywood running in North Carolina’s 2nd and 6th Congressional districts both have an uphill climb in these districts and it’s clear they know it.
George Holding and Mark Walker both retired within a month of seeing these new maps, aware of their limited options and non-existent future representing these newly drawn districts.
Per Holding:
“I should add, candidly, that, yes, the newly redrawn Congressional Districts were part of the reason I have decided not to seek election” [Tweet, 12/6/19]
“I would never run in a race just to run. You got to run to win and you wouldn’t undertake something that you couldn’t win.” [Charlotte Observer, 12/4/19]
Mark Walker was less blunt but eagerly looked to find any other district where he could possibly run. He openly debated challenging incumbent Republicans Ted Budd or Patrick McHenry because he knew he had no future in his current district. Ultimately, he decided to sit out this cycle as he prepares a Senate run in 2022.
In their place comes Alan Swain and Lee Haywood who are both first time candidates running more as ballot-fillers than real contenders. So far Alan Swain in NC-02 has only raised $9,232 and Lee Haywood in NC-06 has failed to even file an FEC report beyond his statement of candidacy. Both will receive little if any support from North Carolina or Washington Republicans.
6th Congressional District nominee Lee Haywood put it bluntly when he announced his candidacy back in December: “I am not expecting much support from the establishment GOP.”
PATH TO VICTORY
Deborah Ross and Kathy Manning are both notably qualified candidates with deep and longstanding ties to their respective communities. Ross and Manning both have a true understanding of the issues facing their districts – issues like health care, good paying jobs, education, and climate change – and they’re ready to fight for them in Congress.
They’ve also used their deep connections to their districts to raise formidable amounts that will ensure their message gets across to voters. So far this cycle, Deborah Ross has raised over $560,000 and Kathy Manning has raised over $870,000.
Ross and Manning are putting in the work to be successful, and the districts themselves have also been redrawn to give both women a clear advantage.
North Carolina’s 2nd District now has a partisan lean of D+19. Clinton won the district with 62.6% of the vote in 2016 and Obama won the district with 57.9% of the vote in 2012.
North Carolina’s 6th District now has a partisan lean of D+18. Clinton won the district with 61.1% of the vote in 2016 and Obama won the district with 58.9% of the vote in 2012.
It is seats like these that make Republicans’ efforts to retake a majority that much harder. And while Republicans essentially gave up on these districts, Democrats are moving full steam ahead. Heading into November, Ross and Manning are both in a strong position to win their respective districts and make a difference in their communities.