TO: Interested Parties
FR: Dan Sena, DCCC Executive Director
DT: April 3, 2018
RE: Take it Back: Democrats Have Clear Advantage in New District Polls
It’s game time. Month by month, week by week, primaries will produce battle-tested and uniquely qualified Democratic candidates. And vulnerable House Republicans will be forced to face reality: According to a sample of newly released polling data from a wide variety of districts, Democrats are poised to take back the House.
Since the start of the cycle, the grassroots backlash against the Republican agenda has been fierce. Each day since, President Trump and Speaker Ryan’s Congress have given voters motivation to organize, fight, and win. Voters are fighting to take back respect, stability, affordable healthcare, economic security, and a safe and stable future for both their parents and their children. While motivations vary, the American people will keep marching, protesting and ultimately voting to take back the House.
The DCCC has built the largest battlefield in modern history – over 100 districts and counting. We invested in the grassroots, local organizers, and robust voter contact earlier than ever before. Most importantly, we’ve recruited and empowered Democratic candidates who fit their districts and have records of service to their communities and our country that resonate with voters. These Democrats are running deep into the battlefield, and their candidacies are breathing new energy into the party.
These Democrats’ strength as campaigners matches their inspiring work and life stories. They’ve stood shoulder to shoulder with key progressive groups to sharpen the backlash against Republicans for their destructive agenda, particularly the healthcare repeal effort and tax scam that benefits the rich and big corporations instead of middle class Americans. And more than 50 Democratic candidates outraised the Republican incumbent in the most recent quarter, largely fueled by small-dollar, grassroots donations.
As we transition into the final 7 months of the election, what does all this mean? It means a historic number of Republican retirements. It means vulnerable Republican incumbents with a weak or non-existent campaign muscle, caught asleep at the switch by a strong challenge. It means nonpartisan election forecasters shifting 32 races in favor of Democrats in the month of March alone.
And according to newly released data, this means that a huge amount of House Republicans will face the fight of their lives. Today we are releasing new polling conducted since January 2018 in a sample of 12 districts. The data shows that named Democrats are highly competitive, or already beating, the named Republican incumbent, in districts where the generic ballot ranges from R+9 to D+12. The results are staggering, and consistent with matchups from older polling in other districts.
- Iowa’s 1st Congressional District:
- Date: 2/13 -2/14/2018
- Generic Ballot: D+2 (45/42)
- Rod Blum (41) vs. Abby Finkenauer (47) – (D+6)
- New Jersey’s 2nd Congressional District:
- Date: 2/12 -2/13/2018
- Generic Ballot: D+5 (47/42)
- Generic Republican (39) vs. Jeff Van Drew (51) — (D+12)
- California’s 10th Congressional District:
- Date: 2/21-2/22/2018
- Generic Ballot: D+4 (47/43)
- Rep. Jeff Denham (46) vs. Named Democrat* (43) — (R+3)
- Utah’s 4th Congressional District:
- Date: 2/27-3/4/2018
- Generic Ballot: R+9 (35/44)
- Rep. Mia Love (43) vs. Ben McAdams (40) — (R+3)
- New York’s 22nd Congressional District:
- Date: 3/8-3/12/2018
- Generic Vote: R+8 (40/48)
- Claudia Tenney (44) vs. Anthony Brindisi (50) — (D+6)
- Michigan’s 7th Congressional District:
- Date: 2/19 -2/21/2018
- Generic Ballot: Not tested
- Rep. Tim Walberg (41) vs. Gretchen Driskell (37) — (R+4)
- Virginia’s 10th Congressional District:
- Date: 3/20 -3/21/2018
- Generic Ballot: D+12 (50/38)
- Barbara Comstock (43) vs. Named Democrat* (46) – (D+3)
- Florida’s 26th Congressional District:
- Date: 3/17 -3/22/2018
- Generic Ballot: D+2 (43/41)
- Curbelo (45) vs. Debbie Mucarsel Powell (40) – (R+5)
- Washington’s 8th Congressional District:
- Date: 3/23/2018
- Generic Ballot: D+1 (46/45)
- Dino Rossi (46) vs. Named Democrat* (44) – (R+2)
- Nevada’s 4th Congressional District:
- Date: 1/5 -1/9/2018
- Generic Ballot: Not tested
- Cresent Hardy (37) vs. Steven Horsford (42) – (D+5)
- Colorado’s 6th Congressional District:
- Date: 2/15/2018-2/18/2018
- Generic Vote: Not asked
- Mike Coffman (39) vs. Jason Crow (44) (D+5)
- Washington’s 5th Congressional District:
- Date: 2/3/2018
- Generic Ballot: R+1 (42/43)
- Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers (47) vs. Lisa Brown (43) — (R+4)
These polls include both DCCC internal polling and campaign polling, along with publicly released polls. Methodology varied by practitioner, and included live calls to landlines and cell phones, automated calls to landlines, or a combination of the two. Each poll was conducted with a sample of roughly 400 voters or more.
*In these polls, at least one Democratic candidate was tested using their name. The data included here is the result of that specific matchup.