|
The DCCC started the 2026 election cycle only needing to net three seats to win back the majority, thanks to House Democrats’ overperformance across the country in 2024. Heading into the cycle, we knew three things:
- Our 2024 overperformance was tied to quality candidates who fit their districts, a laser focus on an economic message, and strategic execution.
- Trump and Republicans’ honeymoon wouldn’t last forever and Republicans, as the party in power in a midterm cycle, would face headwinds which would be compounded by an administration with a history of incompetence, overreach, and corruption.
- We had the ability to control our own destiny, which meant we were not content with sitting idly by and waiting for an anticipated favorable environment to carry us to a small victory.
To win back the majority, the DCCC focused early on on implementing the following strategies.
Built an Expansive Battlefield That Allowed Us to Expand the Map Throughout the Cycle, Including Reaching Deeper into Trump-Won Districts.
Protecting the Frontline
Our initial class of Frontliners (defensive incumbents) of 26 members was possible thanks to the level at which our candidates overperformed the top of the ticket in 2024 which was, on average, by 2.7 points. As the cycle progressed, thanks to their backgrounds and personal brands, as well as the wins they delivered for their districts and early disqualification of their opponents, we were able to ‘roll off’ Frontliners that, through analysis and data, we deemed as no longer in highly competitive, general election districts, including freshman Reps. George Whitesides (CA-27), Dave Min (CA-47), and John Mannion (NY-22). This enabled us to add newly vulnerable members to the program as mid-decade redistricting took shape, including Reps. Shomari Figures (AL-02), Greg Landsman (OH-01), Darren Soto (FL-09), Kathy Castor (FL-14), and Jared Moskowitz (FL-25), without ever increasing our topline number of 26 incumbents in competitive, general election races. Post-2026 election, every single one of our final 26 Frontliners were reelected to Congress by an average of 16 points.
Constantly Expanding the Offensive Battlefield
Simultaneously, in April 2025, the DCCC rolled out its initial Districts in Play (offensive opportunities) of 35 districts, a more expansive, offensive list than at the start of the previous cycle. This initial list, which would eventually grow to 66, included districts that many pundits at the time thought unwinnable, such as IA-02, KY-06, MI-04, and OH-10. Even when pundits were warning that we were expanding the map too far, we stayed the course, highlighting winnable races that we knew could break our way with proper investment, including uplifting key races to donors in the home stretch and via our F*** Around and Find Out Fund. Democrats have so far won 44 of the DCCC’s 66 Districts in Play, which includes 34 of 46 Red to Blue races, and won the four aforementioned seats that were considered ‘unwinnable.’ We knew we needed to stretch our battlefield as much as possible, while the NRCC Chair (who just lost his race) kept telling reporters that control of the House would be decided by “probably less than 30 seats, each one can be decided by 1,000 votes or less.”
Recruiting Earlier Than Ever, With An Emphasis on Authentic, Independent-Minded Candidates
The DCCC started recruitment conversations earlier than ever, recognizing that the key to winning in these districts was finding candidates who were able to transcend partisan politics, were rooted in their communities, and known outside of being just another Democrat. With candidates who ran in 2024 willing to step up and run again in 2026 like Janelle Stelson (PA-10), Christina Bohannan (IA-01), and Rebecca Cooke (WI-03) – all of whom overperformed the top of the ticket in 2024 – we knew we were starting in a strong place.
As DCCC Chair Suzan DelBene often says, our candidates are our “secret sauce.” The DCCC – aided by the work of our Recruitment Co-Chairs Reps. Lauren Underwood, Morgan McGarvey, and Jason Crow – focused on recruiting candidates who had deep roots in their communities, whose personal stories connected them to voters across their districts, and who were able to speak authentically to the issues that matter. From firefighter and high school baseball coach Bob Brooks (PA-07) to Henrico County’s prosecutor and public safety champion Shannon Taylor (VA-01) to ER nurse Mitchell Berman (WI-01), the DCCC aggressively recruited and aided candidates across the country who know what hardworking families are going through and who are known entities in their districts.
It’s Still the Economy, Stupid. And Corruption. And (Health) Care.
We knew costs would be the main issue of the cycle and House Democrats and candidates were relentless in bringing everything back to this topic, while not getting distracted by other issues, whether it be culture wars or the latest Trump construction project. The DCCC was among the first to publicly declare that costs would be THE issue of the midterms as early as April 2025 after “Liberation Day” tariffs when we released an Interested Parties memo staking our claim that we’d hold Republicans accountable for their already broken promise to lower costs, highlighting ads those same Republicans ran on in 2024. We defeated every single Republican highlighted in the memo.
After the Big, Ugly Bill, it became clear that access to affordable health care would be another major electoral issue. Democrats were firm in fighting for a vote to extend the Affordable Care Act tax credits, and voters responded positively to that fight. DCCC internal focus groups of the House battlefield from February 2026 noted that “fighting to lower costs on groceries, housing, and health care” was the top reason to vote for a Democrat. This bore out in quantitative data, as well: in October 2026, national polling found that Democrats had gained the upper hand when it comes to who voters trusted more on the economy. Whether it was Jake Johnson (MN-01) traveling to all 21 counties in the district on his Receipts Tour, where voters bring their literal receipts and talk about how high costs are affecting them, or Johnny Garcia (TX-35) highlighting how the community simply wants to afford barbacoa and Big Red after church on Sunday, or Randy Villegas (CA-22) holding David Valadao accountable for voting for the Big, Ugly Bill even while two-thirds of his Central Valley constituents relies on Medicaid, every single one of our candidates took the issue of high costs and localized it to their districts. In all three of these districts, messages on lowering costs – and negatives hitting Republicans for their actions that raised costs – was the top testing issue.
Throughout their two years in power, Republicans demonstrated to voters that they would always prioritize looking out for the wealthy and well-connected rather than hardworking families, starting with cutting Medicaid and food assistance to pay for tax cuts for the wealthiest few in the Big, Ugly Bill to selling influence and self-enrichment for the first family. For Democrats running across the House battlefield, we turned this corruption into an affordability issue – holding vulnerable House Republicans accountable for their broken promises and economic failures while enriching themselves. Last week’s election results proved that message resonated across the battlefield.
Turned GOP Attempts to Rig the Midterms Against Them, Neutralizing Their Attacks & Even Turning Them Into Positives.
DCCC Chair DelBene raised the alarm in September 2025 in an op-ed titled “How we’re fighting back against the GOP’s attacks on free and fair elections” that Republicans were doing everything they could to hold onto power and rig the midterms in their favor. Through strategic planning and staying nimble on internal structures and staffing, we were able to either neutralize their efforts and, in some instances, turn their efforts into positives for us.
Republicans’ Mid-Decade Redistricting
Trump and Republicans publicly declared in July 2025 that they deserved five more seats out of Texas. Their attempts to steal seats from voters in Texas, Florida, Ohio, Alabama, Tennessee and North Carolina supremely backfired. Every single one of our Frontliners who Republicans attempted to unseat with gerrymandered maps won reelection, despite Republicans spending more than $137 million to unseat them – again, in races that were supposed to be automatic flips for them. Stellar recruits across these states – such as Johnny Garcia (TX-35), Pia Dandiya (FL-22), and Kristina Knickerbocker (OH-10) – meant that we were able to flip races in our favor, in addition to holding the line.
Democrats did not ask for this fight but, under the leadership of soon-to-be Speaker Jeffries and in partnership with Eric Holder’s NDRC, we refused to sit idly by – we decided to fight fire with fire. Not only were Democrats able to prevent multiple states from redistricting, including Indiana and New Hampshire through voter pressure and Missouri through legal means, but we were able to go on offense by taking matters directly to voters with a temporary, voter-driven measure in California and an initiative in Missouri to block their new map
Coordinated Campaign Spending Limits Lifted
We knew from the start of the cycle that we needed to have a contingency plan for if the Supreme Court went along with Republicans’ efforts to undermine campaign finance guardrails put in place after Watergate to stop corruption; particularly as the Republican ecosystem had significantly more money than Democrats did (despite the DCCC and NRCC fundraising at pace all cycle). When the Supreme Court complied, the DCCC sprung into action – working directly with our campaign’s media firms on coordinated TV ads and purposefully buying ads week to week given the Committee’s new ability to access lowest unit rate. This also allowed us to adjust to our ever-expanding map, ensuring candidates like Mitchell Berman (WI-01) and Teresa Benitez-Thompson (NV-02) could effectively communicate in their media markets in the homestretch. The DCCC invested, via coordinated TV spending, in 36 races that have flipped from red to blue – proving that our strategic investments and push to expand the map from the start of the cycle paid off. In the end, despite Republicans spending more via coordinated campaign spending (over $100 million to roughly $85 million), Democrats were able to win more races with less money thanks to our forward-thinking strategy and planning.
The Bottom Line, as Told By the Winning Stats: Democrats have won the largest majority this century, a bigger majority than we had when President Obama was inaugurated in 2009. As of Monday, November 9, the DCCC has:
- Won 70 out of 92 districts on our battlefield, with three uncalled and only 19 won by Republicans, including:
- Reelecting all 26 of our Frontline members;
- Flipping 34 of our Red to Blue districts so far, compared to 11 won by Republicans;
- Winning ten of our additional Districts in Play, compared to eight won by Republicans;
- Of the 77 battleground districts that Trump won in 2024, Democrats have so far won 55 races, compared to 19 by Republicans.
- Overall thus far, in districts with a significant rural population, DCCC candidates are averaging a +17 point shift in congressional vote from 2024.
- In our contested majority-Latino districts, DCCC candidates are averaging a +27 point shift from 2024 congressional races.
- In our battleground districts with a significant Black population (>10%), Democrats have won 25 races so far.
- Of the 44 districts that have flipped red to blue so far, only three were NOT on the DCCC’s battlefield (NC-06, NC-14, TN-04), an indication of just how expansive we knew the map to be ahead of election night.
|
