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INTERESTED PARTIES MEMORANDUM
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To: Interested Parties
From: Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee
Date: August 11, 2023
RE: MEMO: MAGA Republicans Keep Losing: Ohio Voters Reject GOP Power Grab Ahead Of November Election Centered Around Reproductive Rights
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The GOP can’t stop losing. This week, voters in Ohio dealt another blow to MAGA Republicans’ anti-abortion agenda with a clear and resounding rejection of Issue 1 — the measure that sought to end majority rule and obstruct voters from protecting reproductive freedoms this November.
Ohio Rejected MAGA Republicans’ Attack On Women’s Rights:
In competitive House districts across the state, voters rejected Republicans’ war on womens’ rights:
Each of the most populous counties in the DCCC’s target districts voted “NO” over 65% – a stark warning to the NRCC’s far-right candidates
In Ohio overall, voters, by a double-digit margin, said “NO” to the GOP’s thinly veiled attempt to change the rules in order to protect a near total abortion ban. “NO” outperformed President Biden’s 2020 margin by 22-points. The shift was even greater in college towns. For instance, in Athens County — where Biden won by 15 points — “NO” won by 41 points, a 26-point shift.
A similar shift was seen in counties won by Donald Trump
Ohio’s suburbs and exurbs moved drastically, as seen in the counties surrounding Cincinnati (home to OH-01):
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Butler (Trump +24): YES 50.3/49.7
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Warren (Trump +31): YES 52.8/47.2
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Clermont (Trump +37): YES 54.3/45.7
Vote totals show evidence Republicans have isolated their own voters and unaffiliated independents on this issue. In 2020, President Biden won just 7 counties in Ohio. On Tuesday, “NO” won a majority of the vote in 22 counties, including 15 won by Donald Trump.
Ohio voters once again confirmed what we’ve known since the Dobbs decision last summer: voters overwhelmingly reject MAGA Republicans’ attack on women’s freedom to access abortion and reproductive health care.
Attacks On Reproductive Rights Are Changing The Electorate, Generating Historic Turnout:
Last year, Ohio saw a surge in women registering to vote. According to the New York Times, the state had a 6.4% increase in female voters from before the Dobbs leak to after the decision. This current electorate looks a lot more like 2018’s — the last time a Democrat won statewide — than 2022’s midterm electorate.
For an August special election with one statewide issue on the ballot, turnout was exceedingly high – almost 40%, matching what it was in the 2014 midterm elections.
Dobbs Decision Is Still A Major Motivating Factor Even After The Midterms:
The Dobbs decision had a significant impact on the midterm elections with reproductive rights mattering most to the swing voters who decided key race after key race across the country. But since the midterms, some pundits have warned that abortion will not motivate voters in the same way. So far, this line of reasoning has proven false. New polling from CNN shows 64% of U.S. adults disapprove of the Dobbs decision and a record-high share (84%) of the public say “that they’re likely to take a candidate’s position on abortion into consideration when voting.”
To further prove the point, look at special elections this year where Democrats who have made abortion a top issue are overperforming:
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In the VA-04 February special election, Rep. Jennfier McClellan — who made abortion a top issue — overperformed the 2022 House results by 9 points. McClellan flipped three rural counties that were carried by the Republican candidate in 2022, made gains in the urban-suburban portions of the district, and overperformed in every county in the district compared to 2022.
Battleground polling conducted for the DCCC this year highlights that, by more than a two-to-one margin, voters trust Democrats to protect abortion rights. The Ohio special election shows Democrats continue to see an opportunity to expand on our margins in urban areas and that the suburban swing towards Democrats has only accelerated since the midterm elections.
Communicating The Stakes To Win In 2024:
The DCCC already ran digital ads against 31 vulnerable Republican incumbents over their support for various anti-abortion measures and launched a microsite detailing vulnerable Republicans’ attacks on reproductive care. States with Republican-controlled legislatures — such as Ohio where a near total abortion ban forced horrific decisions for women, parents and children — present an opportunity to highlight how far Republicans will go to ban abortion and how little they care about voters’ reproductive freedoms. Every single Republican incumbent and challenger will have to answer for the GOP’s extreme anti-abortion agenda, both in-state and at the national level.
BOTTOM LINE:
Heading into an on-year election, states with key congressional races (such as New York) will be considering constitutional amendments to protect abortion access, and Republicans who are on the ballot will have to answer for their anti-abortion agenda. Meanwhile, Democrats continue to position themselves as the party that is grounded in reality and focused on upholding the freedoms and rights of the American people.
It is crucial that Democrats remind voters early and often that while Democrats are the ones lowering costs and strengthening the economy from the bottom up and middle out, MAGA Republicans are focusing their power on advocating for dangerous and unpopular abortion bans. Based on the available data and special election trends, it’s clear that Democrats’ pro-choice policies are in line with the American people, leaving us in a good position to take back the House in November 2024.
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