In response to a new poll from the Des Moines Register/Mediacom showing a Democrat beating a Republican by 47-29 percent in Iowa’s First Congressional District, DCCC Spokeswoman Rachel Irwin released the following statement:
“Iowans are ready to drain the swamp in Washington and Representative Rod Blum is first on the list. From his vote to raise healthcare premiums and slap an age tax on older Americans, to putting his Wall Street donors ahead of Main Street in voting for the Republican tax scam – Rod Blum is one of the most vulnerable incumbents in the country. Iowans will have a fighter in Dubuque-native Abby Finkenauer, who’s proven she’s a champion for Iowa workers and ready to take on the Washington establishment to get results.”
Iowans favor electing Democrats to Congress over Republicans, a new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll shows | Des Moines Register
By Jason Noble
Forty percent of Iowa Poll respondents say they would vote for a Democrat if congressional elections were held today, compared to 34 percent who say they would back a Republican.
The finding is notable because Republicans hold three of Iowa’s four congressional seats, including two seen as among the most competitive in the country in 2018.
The results of a so-called “generic ballot” question provide insight into how Iowans’ views have shifted after voting heavily in favor of Republican Donald Trump in 2016, said Nathan Gonzales, an elections forecaster and publisher of the nonpartisan Inside Elections newsletter.
“It sounds like voters are more skeptical about Republicans going into the 2018 elections,” he said.
Democrats are favored among women, all age groups, those earning under $70,000 and people living in cities and towns. A narrow plurality of 31 percent of independents say they would back a Democrat, compared with 28 percent who say they’d vote Republican.
In addition to the responses favoring Democrats or Republicans, 7 percent of respondents say they’d vote for a candidate from neither party, another 7 percent say they wouldn’t vote and 10 percent aren’t sure.
The results are starkest in Iowa’s 1st congressional district, which encompasses 20 northeast Iowa counties and is currently held by two-term Republican U.S. Rep. Rod Blum.
Despite the GOP incumbent, 47 percent of poll respondents in the district say they would vote for a Democrat, while just 29 percent say they’ll vote Republican. Those represent the highest Democratic numbers in the state, eclipsing even the 2nd District, where Democratic U.S. Rep. Dave Loebsack is a six-term incumbent.
“Holy smokes,” Gonzales said of the 1st District results. “That’s a big gap.”
Inside Elections rates Iowa’s 1st a “lean Republican” seat, while the Cook Political Report — another nonpartisan forecasting group — calls it a toss-up.
“If that number is even close to accurate, then it not only confirms that this is a competitive race but that the congressman is facing a difficult race for re-election,” Gonzales said.
The generic ballot question isn’t the only indicator that the 1st District is tilting Democratic.
Sixty-three percent of respondents in the district disapprove of Trump’s job performance, and 62 percent say the country is headed in the wrong direction — the highest readings of any district in the state.
[…]
The party holding the presidency typically loses congressional seats in the mid-term election; Democrats must pick up 24 seats to win the majority in the House.
The poll, conducted by Selzer and Co. of Des Moines, questioned 802 Iowa adults Dec. 3-6 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
The poll also tested the popularity of Iowa’s U.S. senators, Republicans Chuck Grassley and Joni Ernst.
Read the full story here.