Laurie Buckhout: The Reckless Tariff Policy Could Result In $695 Million In Losses And 8,000 Lost Jobs In North Carolina As North Carolina Farmers Were Struggling To Sell Their Products Overseas Because Of Retaliatory Tariffs Impacting The State’s Agricultural Industry

Tariffs Impacting The Agriculture Industry Could Result In $695 Million In Losses And 8,000 Lost Jobs In North Carolina And Put An Industry Responsible For One Sixth Of The State’s Overall Income At Risk

Tariffs Impacting The Agriculture Industry Could Result In $695 Million In Losses And 8,000 Lost Jobs In North Carolina

The Tariffs Could Result In $695 Million In Losses And 8,000 Lost Jobs In North Carolina. “Agriculture in North Carolina, its rural economy, and even the state economy all face considerable risks if major trading partners such as China, the European Union, Canada, and Mexico retaliate against the U.S. to protest President Donald Trump’s more aggressive trade policy. This paper attempts to estimate the impacts on several crops important to North Carolina’s agriculture industry — and on the economy as a whole — of retaliatory tariffs that may result from Trump’s tariff agenda. To evaluate these impacts, the author looks to historical examples to gauge potential economic consequences of large disruptions in international trade as well as to estimations in the academic literature of the price sensitivities of certain commodities to a drop in exports. The estimated losses would deal a significant blow to North Carolina’s economy. For what seem like plausible reductions in agricultural exports, the potential losses to the state’s farming industry included in this paper add up to $695 million. That represents approximately one-third of average net farm income in North Carolina. Such a contraction would lead to a total of roughly 8,000 lost jobs, both directly in the agriculture industry along with the ripple effects from that lost revenue. The job losses would be concentrated in North Carolina’s rural communities. Factoring in indirect effects on the rural economy of North Carolina adds additional estimated revenue losses on the order of $1.2 billion. That brings potential total economic losses due to trade policy retaliation to $1.9 billion, equal to over 2 percent of the gross state product of North Carolina.” [John Locke, How Tariffs Threaten North Carolina Agriculture, by Jeffrey Dorfman, 1/12/26]

• Dorfman: “The Job Losses Would Be Concentrated In North Carolina’s Rural Communities.” “Agriculture in North Carolina, its rural economy, and even the state economy all face considerable risks if major trading partners such as China, the European Union, Canada, and Mexico retaliate against the U.S. to protest President Donald Trump’s more aggressive trade policy. This paper attempts to estimate the impacts on several crops important to North Carolina’s agriculture industry — and on the economy as a whole — of retaliatory tariffs that may result from Trump’s tariff agenda. To evaluate these impacts, the author looks to historical examples to gauge potential economic consequences of large disruptions in international trade as well as to estimations in the academic literature of the price sensitivities of certain commodities to a drop in exports. The estimated losses would deal a significant blow to North Carolina’s economy. For what seem like plausible reductions in agricultural exports, the potential losses to the state’s farming industry included in this paper add up to $695 million. That represents approximately one-third of average net farm income in North Carolina. Such a contraction would lead to a total of roughly 8,000 lost jobs, both directly in the agriculture industry along with the ripple effects from that lost revenue. The job losses would be concentrated in North Carolina’s rural communities. Factoring in indirect effects on the rural economy of North Carolina adds additional estimated revenue losses on the order of $1.2 billion. That brings potential total economic losses due to trade policy retaliation to $1.9 billion, equal to over 2 percent of the gross state product of North Carolina.” [John Locke, How Tariffs Threaten North Carolina Agriculture, by Jeffrey Dorfman, 1/12/26]
• Dorfman: Trump’s Tariffs And Trade Policy Retaliation Could Result In An Economic Loss Of $1.9 Billion. “Other indirect effects on the state’s rural economy would result in an additional $1.2 billion in estimated revenue losses, Dorfman wrote. This brings the potential total economic losses as a result of trade policy retaliation to $1.9 billion, which is more than 2% of North Carolina’s gross state product. Donald Bryson, CEO of the Locke Foundation, a free-market think tank, said the organization commissioned the study

because it has become increasingly concerned about the effect of recent agricultural policies on the state’s food supply chain.” [NC Newsline, 1/16/26]

• Dorfman Was A Professor Of Agricultural And Resource Economics At North Carolina State. “Jeffrey Dorfman is the Hugh C. Kiger Distinguished Professor of Agricultural and Resource Economics at North Carolina State University. In this role, he teaches, performs research on the broad area of the economics and management of the food industry, and fills an extension role assisting growers, industry, and policy makers on topics of pricing, marketing, management, and policy issues.” [John Locke, How Tariffs Threaten North Carolina Agriculture, by Jeffrey Dorfman, 1/12/26]
• The Carolina Journal Headline: “Report Warns Tariffs Could Cost NC Farms $700M, 8,000 Jobs.” [The Carolina Journal, 1/13/26]

North Carolina Chamber: The Agricultural Industry Represented One-Sixth Of North Carolina’s Overall Income And Contributed $111 Billion Annually To The State

North Carolina Chamber: The Agricultural Industry Supported One-Fifth Of North Carolina’s Overall Income And Contributed Over $100 Billion Annually To The State. “Agriculture and agribusiness remain foundational to North Carolina’s economy, generating more than $100 billion annually and supporting nearly one in five jobs across the state. North Carolina boasts the nation’s third-most-diverse agriculture economy, producing over 80 commercial crops alongside a thriving animal agriculture sector that makes up 70% of total farm sales. We lead the nation in sweet potatoes, tobacco, and poultry/egg sales. Beyond its economic impact, agriculture plays a critical role in North Carolina’s long-term competitiveness, food and national security, supply-chain resilience, and rural economic vitality.” [North Carolina Chamber, Agriculture & Agribusiness, accessed 6/1/26]

North Carolina Farmers Were Struggling To Sell Their Products Overseas As Countries Responded To American Trade Policies With Retaliatory Tariffs Putting Billions Of Dollars Worth Of Trade At Risk In The State

The United States Raised Tariffs On Foreign Imports To The U.S. Trade Partners Leading To Retaliatory Tariffs And A Trade War

NC Newsline: “Over The Past Year, President Donald Trump Has Raised Tariffs On Foreign Imports To The U.S. Major Trade Partners Like The European Union, China And Canada Imposed Retaliatory Tariffs In Response, Leading To Trade Wars And Increased Prices Across The Board.” “Retaliatory tariffs could have harsh economic consequences for North Carolina’s agricultural sector, according to a new report from the John Locke Foundation. Over the past year, President Donald Trump has raised tariffs on foreign imports to the U.S. Major trade partners like the European Union, China and Canada imposed retaliatory tariffs in response, leading to trade wars and increased prices across the board. ‘How Tariffs Threaten North Carolina Agriculture: NC Farmers at Risk,’ authored by Jeffrey Dorfman at North Carolina State University, estimates the tariffs could cost the state’s farmers about $695 million. This figure represents roughly a third of average net farm income in North Carolina. ‘Such a contraction would lead to a total of roughly 8,000 lost jobs, both directly in the agriculture industry along with the ripple effects from that lost revenue,’ Dorfman wrote. ‘The job losses would be concentrated in North Carolina’s rural communities.’” [NC Newsline, 1/16/26]

• NC Newsline Headline: “Tariffs Could Wipe Out Nearly A Third Of NC Farm Income, New Report Says.” [NC Newsline, 1/16/26]

13 News: North Carolina Farmers Were Struggling To Sell Their Products Overseas As Countries Responds To Trump’s Trade Policies With Retaliatory Tariffs

13 News: North Carolina Farmers Were Struggling To Sell Their Products Overseas As Countries Responds To Trump’s Trade Policies With Retaliatory Tariffs. “Tariffs designed to protect American manufacturing are having an unintended side effect for North Carolina farmers driving up costs and shrinking overseas markets. On his farm, Mike Jones says the impact is hard to miss. His tractor, van, and fencing all rely on parts or raw materials sourced from outside the United States. Jones says repair parts now cost 20 to 25 percent more than they did a year ago, and even equipment labeled ‘Made in America’ often includes materials imported from countries now facing steep tariffs. New research from an agriculture professor at North Carolina State University, published through the John Locke Foundation, estimates tariffs are costing North Carolina farmers nearly $700 million. The report also warns the losses could lead to more than 8,000 jobs disappearing statewide. It’s not just higher costs. Farmers are also struggling to sell their products overseas as other countries respond with retaliatory tariffs. ‘When we do broad-based tariffs to every country, those countries retaliate,’ said Donald Bryson with the John Locke Foundation. ‘That puts a lot of pressure on North Carolina’s farmers who no longer have a market to sell to.’ Jones says many farmers took major financial hits this year. ‘A lot of them lost a lot of money,’ he said.” [13 News, 1/15/26]

• 13 News Now Headline: “Farmers Say Tariffs Are Raising Prices You’ll Eventually Pay.” [13 News, 1/15/26]
• Washington Post Headline: “Trump’s Tariffs War Is Sparking Uncertainty For North Carolina Farmers.” [Washington Post, 4/14/25]

North Carolina Department Of Commerce: Trade Was Critical To North Carolina’s Economy And Accounted For Nearly $43 Billion In Export Revenue And $88 Billion In Imported Products For North Carolina’s Economy

North Carolina Department Of Commerce: Trade Was Critical To North Carolina’s Economy. “Trade is critical to North Carolina's economy – accounting for nearly $43 billion in export revenue and $88 billion in imported products and materials. Trade relationships with China, Mexico, Canada, and the European Union are particularly important for our state. Increased tariffs on our imports and exports will have immediate impacts on NC consumers, businesses, and ultimately jobs. Sectors such as pharmaceuticals, transportation equipment, electronics, and machinery are especially exposed due to their reliance on global supply chains. Tariff policies on U.S. imports may have implications for domestic manufacturing. As the U.S.’s 8th largest state in manufacturing GDP, North Carolina would be positioned to experience shifts related to potential industry reshoring or growth. However, reestablishing new manufacturing capacity involves long-term investments in facilities, workforce, and supply chains. These shifts may also coincide with ongoing trends in automation and advanced manufacturing (Industry 4.0), where companies across the industry are increasingly adopting robotics, AI, and relying on a more specialized, high-skilled workers These trends present both opportunities and challenges for education and workforce development systems as they adapt to evolving labor market needs. As national trade policies evolve, North Carolina's economic future will depend on how effectively businesses, workers, and communities adapt to shifting global markets. Understanding these trade dynamics is essential for anyone concerned with the state's economic resilience and long-term prosperity.” [North Carolina Department Of Commerce, 4/14/25]

• Trade Accounted For Nearly $43 Billion In Export Revenue And $88 Billion In Imported Products For North Carolina’s Economy. “Trade is critical to North Carolina's economy – accounting for nearly $43 billion in export revenue and $88 billion in imported products and materials. Trade relationships with China, Mexico, Canada, and the European Union are particularly important for our state. Increased tariffs on our imports and exports will have immediate impacts on NC consumers, businesses, and ultimately jobs. Sectors such as pharmaceuticals, transportation equipment, electronics, and machinery are especially exposed due to their reliance on global supply chains. Tariff policies on U.S. imports may have implications for domestic manufacturing. As the U.S.’s 8th largest state in manufacturing GDP, North Carolina would be positioned to experience shifts related to potential industry reshoring or growth. However, reestablishing new manufacturing capacity involves long-term investments in facilities, workforce, and supply chains. These shifts may also coincide with ongoing trends in automation and advanced manufacturing (Industry 4.0), where companies across the industry are increasingly adopting robotics, AI, and relying on a more specialized, high-skilled workers These trends present both opportunities and challenges for education and workforce development systems as they adapt to evolving labor market needs. As national trade policies evolve, North Carolina's economic future will depend on how effectively businesses, workers, and communities adapt to shifting global

markets. Understanding these trade dynamics is essential for anyone concerned with the state's economic resilience and long-term prosperity.” [North Carolina Department Of Commerce, 4/14/25]