Cook Political Report’s Dave Wasserman: Texas congressional races are “ticking time bomb” for GOP
Reacting to demographic changes across Texas and suburban voters’ rejection of reckless Washington Republican politics, the GOP is entering freak-out mode as the DCCC continues to build its Texas strategy from the grassroots on up.
And today, a new report from McClatchy DC reveals how things are unraveling for Republicans in Texas. Of the 10 most vulnerable GOP incumbents nationwide, Washington Republicans have admitted that nearly half are Texans: Rep. Michael McCaul (TX-10), Rep. Pete Olson (TX-22), Rep. Will Hurd (TX-23) and Rep. John Carter (TX-31).
Today’s report confirms how jeopardized each of those incumbents are feeling: none would participate in the story, even as one Texas GOP operative and two non-partisan experts aptly described how the landscape is making these DCCC-targeted incumbents start to sweat.
And as retirement rumors swirl around Rep. Kenny Marchant (TX-24) – who was conspicuously left off the NRCC’s list – here’s what the Cook Political Report’s Dave Wasserman had to say: “They clearly don’t want to admit that it’s a competitive seat, but [Marchant] may be one of the most endangered Republicans in the state.” Marchant and his office wouldn’t comment, either.
And as Republicans in Washington break glass and panic…
- In April, the DCCC announced a new DCCC:Texas Headquarters led by native Texans to capitalize on the proven grassroots energy in the state and target six vulnerable GOP incumbents.
- In each of the DCCC’s six targeted seats, a rapidly-growing and diverse population has Republicans “freaking out” and “increasingly worried that some of the targeted incumbents are not taking these re-election races seriously or may end up retiring.”
- Early DCCC polling shows that, in every district surveyed, well over 50 percent of voters are ready to replace their current Republican Congressman.
- Meanwhile, the DCCC’s March Forward program is already putting field organizers on the ground in the suburbs of Houston, Dallas, San Antonio, and Austin.
McClatchy DC: Republicans devise plan to prop up 10 vulnerable House districts with extra cash
By Rick Childress and David Lightman
June 11, 2019
Republicans plan to pour extra money and resources into 10 congressional districts where Republican incumbents are vulnerable amid demographic changes that could swing the elections toward Democrats.
The special Republican effort, called the “Patriot Program,” asks party donors to direct funds to incumbent campaigns. The congressmen also get additional staff and support for more extensive advertising campaigns from the National Republican Congressional Committee, the GOP’s House campaign arm.
Three of the districts — represented by Republicans Will Hurd of Texas, John Katko of New York and Brian Fitzpatrick of Pennsylvania — went to Hillary Clinton, the Democratic nominee in the 2016 presidential race.
Aside from Hurd, three other Texans — more than any other state — are on the list. Reps. Pete Olson, John Carter and Michael McCaul each narrowly escaped tough Democratic challenges in the 2018 elections. Each represents a district on the outskirts of the state’s rapidly growing metropolitan areas.
Reps. Don Bacon of Nebraska, Lee Zeldin of New York, Fred Upton of Michigan and Jaime Herrera Beutler of Washington, are also on the GOP list of vulnerable districts.
Josh Blank, the manager of polling at the nonpartisan Texas Politics Project, said Republicans are playing defense in suburban districts that are seeing a big influx of younger, more diverse voters who can’t afford to live in increasingly popular and expensive city centers. Five of the nation’s 11 fastest growing cities are in Texas, the U.S. Census Bureau reported in 2016.
According to early polling in suburban Texas districts released by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, over half of respondents said they’d vote to replace their district’s Republican incumbent.
“It’s that type of growth that is making Democrats more competitive in the suburbs,” Blank said.
Many of these voters are new to Texas. Over 1 million people have emigrated to the state since 2010, many of them are highly educated and who settled around the state’s metro centers, according to Lloyd Potter, the state demographer, in an op-ed in the Dallas Morning News.
Democrats have campaign operatives on the ground throughout the state and are seeking to target these younger voters in an effort to expand their majority in the House.
Brendan Steinhauser, a communications adviser to the Texas Republican Party and who worked with McCaul’s campaign last year, said that many of the 2018 election results jolted the state GOP.
Steinhauser said the party will remind new voters that a big reason they are in Texas is the state’s conservative fiscal policy and relatively low taxes that have made the state more attractive for consumers and commerce.
None of the Texas congressional offices mentioned responded to requests for comment.
David Wasserman, a House political analyst with the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, said many of the districts in Texas are “ticking time bombs” for the Republican party because of demographic changes.
The difference could be President Donald Trump. Wasserman said that many of the vulnerable Republican incumbents can bank on a large turnout of pro-Trump voters.
“The people who were missing from the 2018 election were predominantly whites without college degrees who were predominantly a pro-Trump demographic and that could protect these Republicans for another couple years,” Wasserman said.
Wasserman also said that the Texas Republican he believes is most vulnerable is notably missing from the Patriot Program list.
Rep. Kenny Marchant, whose district is just north of the Dallas-Fort Worth area, has seen a major influx of non-white voters and liberal professionals, Wasserman said. Marchant, now in his eighth House term, could be in real danger of being unseated if he faces a credible opponent, he said.
“They clearly don’t want to admit that it’s a competitive seat,” Wasserman said of why Marchant was not included on the list. “But he may be one of the most endangered Republicans in the state.”
Marchant could not immediately be reached for comment.
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