TO: Interested Parties
FR: Dan Sena, DCCC Executive Director
DT: September 14, 2018
RE: Democrats Emerge from Primary Season Stronger Than Ever
With the House primary season officially behind us, it is clear that the DCCC has recruited candidates with deep records of service, bipartisan credibility, and resonant healthcare and economic messages who are ready to win. Thanks to the success of the DCCC’s Red to Blue candidates, expert navigation of California’s challenging top-two system, countless post-primary unity events, and candidates with the resources and personal messages to wage successful general election campaigns, Democrats emerge from primary season in the ideal position to take back the House.
The opposite is true for Republicans who sat on the sidelines throughout primary season, allowing Democrats to decide their fate. Republicans failed to recruit strong candidates in their historic number of open seats, allowed unelectable people to secure nominations in places like New Jersey and Nevada, and embarrassingly failed to impact the California primaries, despite the real opportunity to invest and box Democrats out of key Clinton districts. And despite much bluster and promise to “meddle” in Democrats’ primaries, the Congressional Leadership Fund instead sat on its hands while Democratic primary voters nominated the strongest possible general election candidates.
Red to Blue Shines in Primaries
Given the historic number of candidates running for Congress this cycle, the DCCC knew that navigating the primaries and empowering candidates who could win general elections was a necessity. We were clear from the beginning that all options were on the table in the primaries. A critical part of this was investing in grassroots organizing earlier than ever before with our March into ’18 program, which evolved into a scaled field program and new online platform to empower every citizens to organize their communities. Further, we committed $25 million to turning out voters of color and millennials in the midterms in key swing districts. We knew that early groundwork would pave the way to success in the primary stage of the midterms, and would be a down payment on the general.
The single greatest predictor of success in a Democratic House primary was the DCCC’s highly competitive Red to Blue program, a fact highlighted by a recent FiveThirtyEight analysis of 2018 endorsements. Of the 41 candidates put on the DCCC’s Red to Blue Program before their primaries, 39 secured the nomination (and the two exceptions are currently on Red to Blue and running competitive races). Of the over 80 candidates on Red to Blue total, more than half are women and roughly one-third are under the age of forty.
Pitching Perfect Game in the Golden State
We were on the ground in California earlier than ever before, opening an office in Irvine and investing in local organizers in targeted districts starting in February 2017. Critically, these organizers focused on coalition building with the new, grassroots organizations that had sprung up after Trump’s inauguration. As the Washington Post reported, “Democrats ‘arm the rebels’ with new tools and manpower.” We also made the unprecedented step to base our entire west coast staff in Orange County.
Due to two unexpectedly open seats in January 2018 and a massive amount of grassroots enthusiasm in California, the large number of qualified Democratic candidates threatened to split the vote and keep Democrats out of the general election. The DCCC was the first to recognize the very real possibility of a shutout in four districts: CA-10, CA-39, CA-48, and CA-49. Thanks to our unprecedentedly significant and early investments in California and our deep relationships with activists in each district, we mobilized immediately to navigate our most daunting primary challenge to date.
With all options on the table, the DCCC employed a number of tactics ranging from thinning the field of candidates, to defining Republicans, and registering and turning out voters in person and online. In California’s 39th, we invested heavily in turning out Hispanic voters for Gil Cisneros. In California’s 48th district, the chair of Indivisible OC 48 said, “the DCCC worked as a brilliant collaborative partner” in securing Harley a spot in the general election. National Journal noted that the results were “a testament, in part to extraordinary targeting efforts by the [DCCC]…” The Los Angeles Times summarized our effort:
“The danger of a shutout was real, however, and national Democrats intervened aggressively, endorsing some candidates, coaxing others to step aside and spending copiously to thwart all-Republican general election contests that would have taken those coveted seats off the table.”
Winning Message & Candidate Resources
Democrats across the country are united around the mission of taking back the House and have consistently nominated candidates with deep records of service, independent profiles, and a message that is personal to voters. These candidates include veterans, CIA officers, healthcare advocates, business and civic leaders, community activists, prosecutors, and much more. There are a historic number of female nominees and Democrats are on the ballot in all but four Congressional districts in the entire country, ready to seize on opportunity or Republican scandal.
There’s no question that robust primaries helped candidates introduce themselves to voters, hone their messages and draw sharp contrasts with Republicans who are losing the debate over healthcare and the economy. Given the significant number of first-time candidates who are running for office as Democrats, the primaries allowed them to strengthen their campaign infrastructure, tell their incredible stories to voters, and significantly increase their name ID. Thanks to a passionate debated about a wide-range of solutions to address the pressing and personal issues of our time, candidates who fit their districts secured the nominations and emerged as a united front with their former Democratic competitors.
Further, Democrats proved that an army of small-dollar, grassroots donations could continue to fuel their races, and the DCCC helped ensure campaigns built the infrastructure and capacity to capitalize. An extensive Roll Call analysis shattered the myth that primaries would leave Democrats without the necessary resources: “On average, Democrats in competitive races who faced expensive primaries have more than doubled their cash on hand from shortly before their primary elections…” During the second quarter of 2018, more than seventy Democratic candidates out-raised their Republican opponent, and the third quarter will be even more eye-popping. In an ever-increasing amount of districts, Democrats have surpassed their opponent in cash-on-hand and will not need to be propped up by outside groups. With an unprecedented amount of dark outside Republican money, it’s more important than ever that candidates can bring their message directly to voters at a much more affordable candidate rate.